Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail
Markets
Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail
This metric suggests bitcoin's late November
Markets
Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail
This metric suggests bitcoin's late November
This metric suggests bitcoin's late November plunge was the bottom and major upside lies ahead
This metric suggests bitcoin's late November plunge was the bottom and major upside lies ahead
Extreme readings in the ratio between short-term holder supply in profit and short-term holder supply in loss have aligned with the end of bear markets.
By James Van Straten|Edited by Stephen Alpher
Jan 6, 2026, 3:13 p.m.
BTC: Short-Term Holder Profit/Loss Ratio (Glassnode)
What to know:
- The short-term holder profit-to-loss ratio fell to 0.013 on Nov. 24, just days after bitcoin plunged to about the $80,000 level.
- That reading has historically aligned with major and local bitcoin market bottoms.
- The ratio has since recovered to around 0.5, indicating growing profitability among short-term holders.
As bitcoin BTC$93,326.03 tumbled in late November to nearly $80,000, the ratio between short-term holder supply in profit and short-term holder supply in loss fell to levels that have historically coincided with major or local bear market bottoms.
On Nov. 24, the ratio declined to 0.013. Each previous instance of the ratio reaching this level has marked either a local bottom or the definitive bear market low, including in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2022, according to Glassnode data.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Sign me up
Glassnode defines short-term holders as investors who have held bitcoin for less than 155 days. At the November trough, the seven-day moving average of short-term holder supply in profit fell to approximately 30,000 BTC. In contrast, short-term holder supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022, when bitcoin bottomed near $15,000.
Since the start of 2026, bitcoin has rallied to about $94,000, a jump of over 7%. Over this period, short-term holder supply in loss has declined to 1.9 million BTC, while short-term holder supply in profit has rebounded sharply to 850,000 BTC — a ratio of roughly 0.45.
Historically, when the ratio approaches 1, it tends to move above it and continue expanding beyond that. The price of bitcoin tends to enter a sustained upside phase at the same time. With the ratio currently sitting below 0.5%, the metric suggests there remains room for significant further expansion before reaching equilibrium.
As for tops, they've tended not to occur until the ratio rises toward 100.
Bitcoin NewsGlassnodeon-chain
More For You
KuCoin Hits Record Market Share as 2025 Volumes Outpace Crypto Market
Commissioned byKuCoin
KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
View Full Report
More For You
BNB breaks $910 resistance on wider crypto market rally momentum
Market participants defended rising support while trading volume surged 66% above average during resistance tests near $908, pointing to increasing demand ahead of major network upgrade.
What to know:
- BNB broke through the $910 resistance zone, rising 2% to top $920, as the broader cryptocurrency market saw a 5.3% increase in the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index.
- The rally comes ahead of the planned Fermi hard fork on January 14, which aims to improve the BNB Chain's capacity to 20,000 transactions per second and make it more attractive to developers.
- BNB reached an intraday high of $921.47 and now sits near the next breakout target at $928, with bulls eyeing a potential move towards $1,066 if momentum holds.
Read full story
Latest Crypto News
BNB breaks $910 resistance on wider crypto market rally momentum
Ethereum’s staking queues have cleared and that changes the ETH trade
Buck launches bitcoin-linked ‘savings coin’ tied to Michael Saylor’s Strategy
CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: SUI Gains 5.5% as Index Moves Higher
Storage token Filecoin rises on heavy volume
Solana memecoin frenzy sends PumpSwap trading volume to record $1.2 billion
Top Stories
Morgan Stanley files for bitcoin and solana ETFs, deepening crypto push
Buck launches bitcoin-linked ‘savings coin’ tied to Michael Saylor’s Strategy
Crypto Markets Today: Bitcoin tests key resistance as memecoin trading volume explodes
Arthur Hayes' Maelstrom enters 2026 at 'almost maximum risk' betting on altcoins
Here’s why bitcoin and major tokens are seeing a strong start to 2026
Largest bitcoin ETF inflow in three months signals institutional bid is back
Market Opportunity
Major Price(MAJOR)
$0.13296
$0.13296$0.13296
USD
Major (MAJOR) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.
You May Also Like
TD Cowen cuts Strategy price target to $440, cites lower bitcoin yield outlook
Despite the target cut, TD Cowen said Strategy remains an attractive vehicle for investors seeking bitcoin exposure.
Share
Coinstats2026/01/15 07:29
Here’s How Consumers May Benefit From Lower Interest Rates
The post Here’s How Consumers May Benefit From Lower Interest Rates appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Topline The Federal Reserve on Wednesday opted to ease interest rates for the first time in months, leading the way for potentially lower mortgage rates, bond yields and a likely boost to cryptocurrency over the coming weeks. Average long-term mortgage rates dropped to their lowest levels in months ahead of the central bank’s policy shift. Copyright{2018} The Associated Press. All rights reserved. Key Facts The central bank’s policymaking panel voted this week to lower interest rates, which have sat between 4.25% and 4.5% since December, to a new range of 4% and 4.25%. How Will Lower Interest Rates Impact Mortgage Rates? Mortgage rates tend to fall before and during a period of interest rate cuts: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.35% from 6.5% last week, the lowest level since October 2024, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reported. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages also dropped to 5.5% from 5.6% as they neared the year-ago rate of 5.27%. When the Federal Reserve lowered the funds rate to between 0% and 0.25% during the pandemic, 30-year mortgage rates hit record lows between 2.7% and 3% by the end of 2020, according to data published by Freddie Mac. Consumers who refinanced their mortgages in 2020 saved about $5.3 billion annually as rates dropped, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Similarly, mortgage rates spiked around 7% as interest rates were hiked in 2022 and 2023, though mortgage rates appeared to react within weeks of the Fed opting to cut or raise rates. How Do Treasury Bonds Respond To Lower Interest Rates? Long-term Treasury yields are more directly influenced by interest rates, as lower rates tend to result in lower yields. When the Fed pushed rates to near zero during the pandemic, 10-year Treasury yields fell to an all-time low of 0.5%. As…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 05:59
SKILD AI Secures $1.4 Billion in SoftBank-Led Funding
SKILD AI, supported by SoftBank, raises $1.4 billion to enhance robotics and AI development.Read more...
Share
Coinstats2026/01/15 07:03