U.S. Debt Reaches $38.5 Trillion, Analysts Warn of Fiscal Dominance Shift

TLDR

• The U.S. national debt has climbed to a record $38.5 trillion in early 2026.
• Over 70% of the total debt is owed to domestic lenders within the United States.
• Japan, China, and the United Kingdom remain the top foreign holders of U.S. debt.
• The current U.S. GDP is near $30 trillion, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio above 120%.
• Interest payments on the national debt have exceeded $1 trillion annually.

The U.S. national debt has reached a new record of $38.5 trillion as domestic and foreign borrowing continues to climb, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio beyond 120% and intensifying discussions around fiscal sustainability, market liquidity, and inflationary pressures.

Domestic Share of Debt Surges as Interest Payments Soar

The United States now owes over 70% of its $38.5 trillion debt to domestic lenders, according to updated federal dashboards. Foreign lenders hold the remaining share, led by Japan, China, and the United Kingdom with large stakes in Treasury securities. Interest payments have reached $1 trillion annually, surpassing current U.S. defense expenditures, based on Treasury data.

The debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 120%, with GDP estimates standing near $30 trillion for the current fiscal year. This means the U.S. borrows $120 for every $100 it produces, placing pressure on long-term economic planning and monetary policy. Spending spikes during the pandemic and persistent outlays on social and defense programs have driven the increase in public debt.

Officials continue debating the long-term implications of rising debt for interest rate policy and financial stability. Janet Yellen recently warned that the debt burden may influence the Fed’s actions more than inflation control. “The risk is that debt levels will dominate monetary policy decisions,” she stated during a public appearance last week.

Lower Rates May Boost Demand for Bitcoin

Analysts point to the prospect of lower interest rates as supportive for real assets, including Bitcoin and gold. Central banks often reduce interest rates to ease government borrowing costs when debt levels grow unsustainably high. This strategy can spur risk appetite, as low yields make traditional savings less attractive.

President Donald Trump has called on the Federal Reserve to cut rates rapidly to 1% or below. Trump stated that “the Fed must act swiftly” in response to debt costs that have become harder to manage. These statements reflect broader political interest in monetary easing as borrowing expands.

Fiscal dominance may force central banks to keep rates low to support debt affordability over price stability goals. This would lower yields on short-term debt while longer-term yields may rise, steepening the yield curve. Bitfinex analysts noted this shift and said, “Assets with real or defensive traits will outperform in such an environment.”

Gold Gains on Debasement Fears as Bitcoin Eyes Catch-Up

Gold rose by 60% last year, driven by concerns over currency debasement linked to high government borrowing and money creation. Debasement occurs when a currency’s value erodes due to excessive issuance, often used to meet rising fiscal obligations. Historical examples, such as the Roman Empire’s debasement of silver coins, mirror modern inflation fears.

Bitcoin advocates believe the cryptocurrency could mirror gold’s performance as inflation risks rise. Analysts expect bitcoin to benefit from increased demand for stores of value in a weakening dollar environment. They say “Bitcoin will catch up to gold,” citing current monetary dynamics and investor sentiment.

A weaker dollar also makes commodities priced in dollars more attractive to global investors. As the yield curve steepens and inflation pressures build, attention shifts to real assets for protection. Bitfinex analysts maintain that this environment favors both defensive and alternative investment options.

The U.S. yield curve has steepened further this week, reflecting heightened borrowing needs and inflation expectations. Short-term yields remain compressed while long-term bond yields continue to climb across Treasury auctions. Market participants continue monitoring central bank activity as liquidity pressures and debt issuance intensify.

The post U.S. Debt Reaches $38.5 Trillion, Analysts Warn of Fiscal Dominance Shift appeared first on CoinCentral.