ASML Stock: Bernstein Upgrades on DRAM Cycle and AI Chip Demand

TLDR

• Bernstein upgrades ASML from Market Perform to Outperform with price target raised from €800 to €1,300
• Top three DRAM manufacturers plan to add up to 250,000 wafers per month in greenfield capacity in 2026
• DRAM node migration to 1c features 28% lithography intensity, higher than previous nodes’ 20-24%
• TSMC expanding 3nm capacity to 180-200,000 wapers per month for AI demand with highest lithography intensity
• Bernstein projects ASML’s EPS growth at 18% CAGR during 2025-27, above consensus estimate of 15%

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ASML shares climbed 3.7% in Amsterdam trading on Monday. Bernstein SocGen Group upgraded the Dutch chipmaking equipment supplier from Market Perform to Outperform.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

The firm raised its price target to €1,300 from €800. This implies roughly 32% upside from current levels.

Bernstein named ASML its top pick among European semiconductor stocks for 2026. The upgrade reflects expectations of stronger memory investment and advanced logic demand.

ASML stock currently trades at a trough premium versus semiconductor equipment peers. The multiple stands at roughly 1x peers compared to a historical average of 1.6x.

Analyst David Dai points to an emerging DRAM upcycle as a key driver. The market appears to underestimate the scale of planned capacity expansion.

The top three DRAM manufacturers are collectively adding up to 250,000 wafers per month in greenfield capacity during 2026. This represents a substantial increase in production capability.

DRAM Technology Transition Supports Equipment Demand

DRAM producers are accelerating their transition to the 1c node. This shift carries important implications for ASML’s equipment sales.

Lithography intensity for 1c reaches 28% based on Bernstein’s estimates. Previous nodes ranged from 20-24% intensity.

The higher intensity translates to increased equipment requirements per wafer. ASML stands to benefit from this technological shift.

Concerns about migration to a 4F² structure appear to be easing. This structure would be negative for extreme ultraviolet tools.

Suppliers are prioritizing manufacturability over cost in the current demand environment. This supports higher EUV usage through the second half of the decade.

Advanced Logic Provides Second Growth Avenue

TSMC is expanding 3nm capacity to 180-200,000 wafers per month. The expansion aims to address AI chip demand.

3nm production carries the highest lithography intensity. Most GPUs and AI accelerators over the next two years are expected to use this process node.

Leading foundries are investing in cutting-edge capacity to meet AI requirements. This creates additional demand for ASML’s advanced equipment.

Bernstein projects ASML’s earnings per share to grow at an 18% compound annual rate during 2025-27. Consensus estimates currently stand at 15% growth for the same period.

The analyst describes 2026 and 2027 as “big years for EUV and for ASML.” Both memory and logic segments are expected to drive equipment sales.

Bernstein’s upgrade reflects confidence in multiple demand drivers converging. The combination of DRAM capacity expansion and advanced logic investment creates favorable conditions for the equipment supplier.

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