Chevron (CVX) Stock: Venezuela’s Political Shake-Up Sends Shares Soaring

TLDR

• Chevron stock jumped over 8% in premarket trading after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro during a weekend operation.
• Chevron currently exports 120,000 to 150,000 barrels per day from Venezuela under a U.S. Treasury license to recover debt from PDVSA.
• Venezuela accounts for less than 10% of Chevron’s total production of 3 million barrels per day and contributes minimally to free cash flow.
• President Trump said major American oil companies will help fix Venezuela’s broken oil infrastructure and sell large quantities internationally.
• Other oil stocks also gained, with Halliburton up 6.42%, ConocoPhillips up 6.64%, and Exxon Mobil up 3.22% in premarket trading.

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Chevron stock surged more than 8% in premarket trading Monday following dramatic weekend events in Venezuela. U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in what President Donald Trump called a military operation.

Chevron Corporation, CVX

The stock hit $168.40 per share at 4:12 am ET. Other oil sector stocks followed suit, with Halliburton gaining 6.42%, ConocoPhillips rising 6.64%, and Exxon Mobil adding 3.22%.

Trump announced on Fox News that American oil companies would enter Venezuela to repair the country’s damaged oil infrastructure. He said Washington would begin selling large quantities of oil internationally. A former Chevron executive stated he was seeking $2 billion for Venezuelan oil projects.

Chevron remains the only U.S. oil major operating in Venezuela. The company has maintained operations there since the early 20th century.

Current Operations in Venezuela

Under a U.S. Treasury license, Chevron manages exports of roughly 120,000 to 150,000 barrels per day of heavy sour crude. These shipments go to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. The arrangement allows Chevron to recover billions in debt owed by Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA while limiting cash flows to the Venezuelan government.

Chevron produces between 200,000 and 250,000 barrels per day through Venezuelan joint ventures. This represents about one-fifth of Venezuela’s total national output. However, only a portion qualifies for export under U.S. sanctions.

The Venezuelan operations represent less than 10% of Chevron’s global production. The company produces approximately three million barrels of oil equivalent daily worldwide. Operations span the Permian Basin, Gulf of Mexico, Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field, and Australia’s LNG projects.

Venezuela contributes even less to Chevron’s free cash flow. Chevron doesn’t control PDVSA or own Venezuelan reserves outright. The company cannot freely monetize the output.

Venezuelan barrels operate within a debt-recovery and compliance framework. This structure offers little visibility into earnings growth. Even under the best political circumstances, years of investment and infrastructure repairs would be needed before Venezuela could materially impact Chevron’s production mix.

Venezuela’s Declining Oil Production

Venezuela sits atop the world’s largest proven oil reserves at roughly 300 billion barrels. Yet the country produces only about one million barrels per day, or roughly 1% of global supply. This marks a steep decline from more than 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s.

Production has fallen nearly 70% due to decades of underinvestment, sanctions, and political interference at PDVSA. Oil accounts for more than half of Venezuela’s government revenue and the vast majority of export earnings.

Recent U.S. enforcement actions against Venezuelan oil tankers have cut exports roughly in half at times. Vessel owners have avoided Venezuelan waters, forcing PDVSA to rely on floating storage. A December cyberattack further disrupted PDVSA’s administrative systems.

These disruptions haven’t meaningfully moved global oil prices. Markets remain well supplied heading into 2026. The events also had no noticeable impact on Chevron’s share price before the weekend operation.

Chevron’s presence in Venezuela stems from a 2007 decision during Hugo Chávez’s nationalization drive. While Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips exited and pursued arbitration, Chevron accepted minority stakes in joint ventures. This pragmatism preserved a century of investment dating back to 1920s exploration and the 1946 Boscán field discovery.

The modern chapter began in late 2022 when a U.S. license allowed Chevron to resume limited production and exports. Chevron successfully ramped up activity at the Petropiar upgrader, which processes extra-heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt.

Chevron’s stock rose about 5.5% last year, lagging peers like Exxon Mobil. Markets focused on oil prices, capital returns, and confidence in assets like Guyana and the Permian Basin. Chevron emphasized capital discipline with a tighter budget and reduced buybacks during weaker oil prices.

For investors, Venezuela represents potential value if politics shift and capital can return. The company’s Venezuelan joint ventures currently produce between 200,000 and 250,000 barrels per day under the existing Treasury license framework.

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