300 million users and a 10% shadow dividend: Deconstructing the "three-phase growth" logic of BNB in 2026

Author: danny

As crypto policies become clearer, mainstream capital is pouring into the crypto market, leading to a structural shift in the valuation logic of industry leaders Binance and BNB. BNB is no longer just a simple exchange utility token, but has matured into a complex, multi-dimensional, composite asset, requiring a multi-dimensional valuation framework for its evaluation.

This paper proposes a “three-phase growth model” to assess the fair market value of a stock. This model isolates and analyzes three distinct but interconnected economic engines: the exchange curve (driven by implicit dividends and structural deflation), the public chain curve (driven by on-chain commodity demand and liquidity, staking), and the emerging digital asset treasury (DAT) curve (driven by institutional capital access and arbitrage).

Regardless of whether the market is bullish or bearish, this article aims to discuss valuation models for this type of multidimensional, complex cryptocurrency.

introduction

In 1873, the darkest hour following the end of the Selangor Civil War in the Malay Peninsula (present-day Kuala Lumpur was then not a city, but a muddy tin mine).

At that time, the Klang Valley region was a true "dead city." After years of bloody fighting between the Hai San and Ghee Hin gangs, the mines were flooded, houses were burned to ashes, and plague was rampant. Tin prices plummeted, and all the merchants thought the region was doomed, so they packed up and fled back to Malacca and Singapore.

By this time, Ye Yalai had reached the end of his rope. His savings had been exhausted in the war, and his miners were preparing to revolt because they had no food.

His companions all advised him, "Let's go. There's no hope here anymore. As long as we're alive, we can always make a comeback."

That moment when he "came in on horseback": Ye Yalai did not leave.

Historical records indicate that this burly and fiercely independent Southeast Asian godfather rode his horse around the devastated ruins. He reined in his horse, watched his fellow countrymen preparing to flee, and made a decision that defied business logic.

He roared at his men: "As long as the tin mines are still underground, Kuala Lumpur will never die! Those who leave now can forget about coming back for a share!"

This was not just a slogan, but a high-stakes gamble. Yap Ah Loy rode his horse to Malacca overnight. He wasn't fleeing; he was borrowing money. He used his own life and reputation as collateral to borrow enough money from an old friend (some say a British merchant, others say a wealthy merchant from Malacca) to buy rice and tools—enough to save his life. Single-handedly, he maintained order in the entire city, distributing rice to the miners, repairing roads, and even resorting to opening casinos and opium dens to collect taxes in order to repay the British "protection money."

In 1879, just when Yap Ah Loy was on the verge of collapse, the global price of tin suddenly skyrocketed.

Even God seemed to be on his side. Thanks to his previous insistence, the mines in Kuala Lumpur were the only ones ready to start operations at any time. Wealth poured in like a flood, and Yap Ah Loy instantly became the richest man in Southeast Asia, laying the foundation for Kuala Lumpur to become a metropolis.

"There is no sky you can't reach, no mountain you can't climb."

I. Macroeconomic and Financial Background: The Crypto Asset Landscape in 2025

The macroeconomic environment in 2025 will be a transition from speculative frenzy to institutional consolidation.

1.1 The Post-GENIUS Era

The financial landscape in 2025 was fundamentally altered by the enactment of the GENIUS Act, a legislative framework that established clear regulatory standards for the issuance of digital assets and stablecoins. This regulatory certainty catalyzed institutional participation, allowing corporate treasuries to hold tokenized assets with legal safeguards.

The clarity provided by the legislation facilitated a surge in mergers and acquisitions, increasing from $1.3 billion in 2024 to $17.7 billion in 2025. This consolidating and legalized environment paved the way for publicly traded companies to adopt proactive digital asset treasury strategies, eliminating fears of regulatory retaliation.

1.2 Binance's growth rate

User adoption metrics in 2025 indicate a structural shift in how crypto assets are used. Binance's user base has expanded to over 300 million, with significant increases in activity across payment tiers and wealth management products.

Binance's cumulative trading volume in spot and futures markets exceeds $64 trillion. This figure surpasses the GDP of most major countries, highlighting Binance's dominant liquidity.

User growth: The user base has surpassed 300 million registered accounts. This metric is crucial to the "network effect" part of valuation (Metcalfe's Law), indicating that the utility value of holding BNB (for fee discounts and access) increases quadratically with the user base.

In addition to achieving remarkable results in trading, they have also made significant strides in other areas:

Binance Pay: This vertical has processed $121 billion in transactions, involving 1.36 billion transactions. Integration with over 20 million merchants indicates that BNB is being used as a medium of exchange, not just a speculative asset. This "velocity of money" supports the token's monetary premium.

Binance Earn: Approximately 14.9 million users have used the financial products, generating over $1.2 billion in rewards. This capital lock-up reduces the effective velocity of circulation, acting as a soft staking mechanism by removing supply from the order book.

Web3 Wallets: With 13.2 million users and $546.7 billion in transaction volume, Web3 wallets act as a crucial bridge between centralized exchanges and the decentralized blockchain (BNB Chain). This integration reduces friction for users transferring liquidity onto the chain, thereby supporting BNB Chain's TVL (Total Value Limit).

This high-turnover capital flow and regulatory security background provide fertile ground for BNB's three growth curves. Unlike the 2021 bull market driven by retail investor speculation, the valuation expansion in 2025 will be supported by the expansion of exchange business, the organic integration of on-chain and off-chain resources, and real-world revenue.

II. First Growth Curve: Exchange Ecosystem – Shadow Revenue and Deflation Alpha

The first growth curve is the Exchange Curve. This curve values BNB as a “pseudo-equity” instrument within the Binance ecosystem. While BNB is not equity, it captures the platform’s economic surplus through two powerful mechanisms: implicit dividends (via Launchpool, HODLer airdrop, etc.) and equity-like deflation (via Auto-Burn).

2.1 Shadow Dividend Theory

In traditional finance, companies distribute profits to shareholders through cash dividends. In the crypto economy, regulatory restrictions typically prevent direct cash distributions. Binance circumvents this by creating an "implicit dividend" model, where value is transferred to holders not in cash, but in the form of equity in a new enterprise (Launchpool tokens).

This mechanism serves as a customer acquisition tool for new projects and a revenue generation tool for BNB holders. The value flow is as follows:

Project requirements: The new project desires the liquidity and user base of Binance.

Project Contribution: Projects allocate a portion (usually 2-7%) of their total token supply to Launchpool.

Allocation: This supply is allocated proportionally to users who have staked BNB.

Realized Gains: BNB holders receive these tokens, which have immediate market value, effectively realizing a "dividend".

2.1.1 Quantitative Analysis of Annual Rate of Return

The pace of these dividends accelerated dramatically during 2024-2025. In 2024, the total value of token rewards distributed through Launchpool exceeded $1.75 billion , nearly four times the $370 million in 2023.

Although Launchpool's availability decreased significantly in 2025, it remains a powerful tool for generating revenue. Launching high-profile projects still requires staking BNB to obtain corresponding airdrop rewards.

Typically, 85% of Launchpool rewards are allocated to BNB stakers (relative to FDUSD). This forces users who want exposure to popular new tokens to buy/borrow BNB.

Starting in 2025, the visibility of HODLer airdrops will increase significantly: "Shadow Dividends"

Binance has introduced the "Hodler Airdrop" to reward loyalty. This mechanism distributes tokens retroactively to users who hold BNB in the Simple Earn product.

Binance takes snapshots of users' deposits via Simple Earn (flexible or fixed deposit). Tokens from partner projects are airdropped.

According to statistics, a total of 57 Hodler airdrops were distributed in 2025.

User analysis indicates that holding 100 BNB would generate a cumulative return of $7,160 by 2025.

Yield calculation: 7,160 / (100 * 850) = ~8.4%. (Note: Some users report yields exceeding 10.29%)

You can think of this return as a "shadow dividend." It's not paid in BNB, but rather in external assets (such as APRO, BANANA, LISTA, etc.). However, it's a direct cash flow attributable to that asset. The 10% yield of "blue-chip" crypto assets significantly exceeds the risk-free rate (4-5%) or the S&P 500 dividend yield (~1.5%), justifying the valuation premium.

2.2 Auto-Burn: Structural Deflation

The second component of the exchange curve is BNB Auto Burn, which is divided into the exchange curve quarterly burn and BNBchain real-time burn. This burn mechanism is more like a deflationary mechanism of repurchasing and burning circulating shares, and its implementation has higher transparency and immutability.

2.2.1. Exchange Curve Quarterly Burn

Binance burns a corresponding amount of BNB each quarter based on trading performance and fees.

Data to be destroyed in 2025

• 2025 Q1 (30th Burn): 1,580,000 BNB were burned, worth approximately US$1.115 billion.
• 2025 Q2 (31st Burn): 1,579,207 BNB were burned, worth approximately $916 million.
• 2025 Q3 (32nd Burn): 1,595,599 BNB were burned, worth approximately $1.024 billion.
• 2025 Q4 (33rd Burn): 1,441,281 BNB were burned, worth approximately US$1.21 billion.

In 2025, 6,196,087 BNB were destroyed, worth approximately $5 billion, representing 4.2% of the circulating supply.

Interestingly, the burn, implemented in October 2025, removed 1,441,281.413 BNB from circulation, with a value of approximately $1.208 billion at the time. This single burn represents a reduction of approximately 1% in BNB supply within a quarter.

2.2.2 BNB realtime burn (BEP-95)

Unlike a company board decision to repurchase shares, BNB Auto-Burn (on-chain) is algorithmic, determined by a formula based on the BNB price (P) and the number of blocks generated on the BSC.

This automatic burn mechanism is designed to replace the initial volume-based burn system, creating an objective, verifiable, and predictable supply contraction. The formula used in 2025 is:

B = N * K / P

in:

• B = The number of BNBs to be destroyed.
• N = Total number of blocks generated by BNB Smart Chain (BSC) this quarter.
• P = The average price of BNB against the US dollar.
• K = Price anchoring constant (initially 1000, adjusted to ~465 via BEP update).

When the price of BNB (P) falls, the denominator decreases, leading to an increase in the amount of tokens burned (B). Conversely, if the price of BNB rises to ~$850 by the end of 2025, the original number of tokens burned decreases, but the value of the burned tokens remains high. This protects the ecosystem from excessive burning during bull markets while accelerating deflation during bear markets.

By the end of 2025, the mechanism had cumulatively removed approximately 280,000 additional BNB. While this is a smaller scale compared to the destruction of the transaction curve, it provides continuous, transactional deflationary pressure that scales linearly with network utilization.

This formula ensures that the burning of tokens is counter-cyclical in terms of quantity (more tokens are burned when prices are low), but continuous in terms of dollar value.

2.2.3 Supply shocks caused by deflation

The ultimate goal of the BNB protocol is to reduce the total supply to 100 million tokens. As of December 2025, the circulating supply was approximately 137.7 million BNB.

• Remaining amount to be destroyed: ~37.7 million BNB.
• Current destruction rate: ~1.5 million BNB/quarter.

  Expected timeline:

  37.7 / 1.5 = 25.1 quarters, approximately equal to 6.25 years.

• This sets the target date at around mid-2032.

For investors in 2025, holding BNB means owning a piece of a pie that is guaranteed to shrink by approximately 27% over the investment period. In financial modeling terms, this is equivalent to a company cancelling 27% of its outstanding shares. If BNB's market capitalization remains constant over the next 7 years, the price per token will mathematically increase by approximately 37% solely due to the reduced supply. This provides a strong "deflationary alpha" independent of market sentiment.

In traditional equity valuation, a company repurchasing $4 billion worth of its own stock within a year (approximately 3-4% of its market capitalization) would be considered an extremely aggressive bullish signal. For BNB, this happens automatically. Deflationary pressures act as a constant upward force on prices (P), assuming demand (D) remains constant or increases.

Some analysts believe that the burning mechanism creates a "soft bottom." They argue that if the price of BNB falls sharply, the burning formula will increase the number of tokens burned, thereby accelerating deflation and correcting the supply-demand imbalance—a view that is open to debate.

III. Second Growth Curve: BNB Chain Economic Engine

The second growth curve departs from centralized exchanges, focusing on BNB as a resource for decentralized computing. In this context, BNB acts as the raw material (Gas) needed to power decentralized global computing; one can think of BNB at this point as a commodity. This curve is driven by the technical performance of the BNB Chain, on-chain transaction activity, and the "locking" requirements of DeFi protocols. (Related reading: Beneath Human Nature, Above Mechanisms: Using the Anchor of Chaoshan Money Shops to Decipher the BNB Chain Ecosystem Empire )

3.1 Overall Market Environment

2025 was a year of “layered solidification” in on-chain activity: Solana won the “casino” (meme/high-frequency trading) battle, BNB Chain stabilized its base with its strong retail base and “zero-fee” strategy, and Base became the fastest growing L2 with the support of Coinbase.

User base (DAU): BNB Chain maintains its leading position by relying on its existing retail user base and "zero gas" strategy, with Solana closely following behind.

DEX Volume: Solana leads the pack in DEX volume thanks to its meme and high-frequency trading.

TVL (Total Value Locked): Ethereum remains the place where whales and institutions store their "old money," far ahead of other chains.

3.2 Technical Architecture and Capacity

By 2025, BNB Chain had evolved into a multi-layered ecosystem, including BNB Smart Chain (BSC), opBNB (Layer 2), and BNB Greenfield (storage) (although the latter two have not yet made much progress).

The BNB chain network processes 12 to 17 million transactions daily, second only to Solana in throughput. BNB Chain is also the world's most retail-oriented blockchain, with over 2 million daily active users.

In 2025, BNB Chain implemented an aggressive "gas reduction" strategy, even achieving "0 gas" for stablecoin transfers. This gave it a significant advantage in stablecoin payments and small-amount, high-frequency transfers. Interestingly, BNB Chain processed DEX trading volume equivalent to Italy's GDP (approximately $2 trillion) throughout the year.

3.3 BEP-95: Real-time Scarcity

While Auto-Burn (the exchange curve) is a quarterly event, the BEP-95 mechanism involves real-time burning of each transaction. A portion of every gas fee paid on the BSC is permanently burned. (See Chapter 2 for details.)

Destruction rate: As of December 2025, approximately 279,736 BNBs have been destroyed through this mechanism.

This mechanism makes BNB a "supercharged currency" during periods of high usage. The burn rate accelerates when network activity surges—for example, during the Meme coin frenzy in late 2025.

With the rise of "Yellow Season" and Meme coin trading on BNB Chain, and with over 2.37 million daily active users, DEX trading volume occasionally surpasses Solana (reaching $1.3 billion daily), making gas burning a significant contributor to scarcity.

3.3 DeFi and Liquidity Collateralized Derivatives (LSD)

The most significant development on the on-chain curve in 2025 will be the explosion of the Liquidity Collateralized Derivatives (LSD) market. Historically, BNB holders have had to choose between staking (with a yield of approximately 2-3%) or using their capital in DeFi.

Lista DAO and slisBNB: The emergence of Lista DAO has changed this calculation. By the end of 2025, Lista DAO's total value locked (TVL) exceeded $2.85 billion. It introduced slisBNB, a liquidity staking token that allows users to use the token as collateral while earning staking rewards.

Integration with Launchpool/soft staking: A key innovation in 2025 was the integration of DeFi assets (such as slisBNB) into Binance Launchpool. Users can now stake BNB in Lista DAO to earn on-chain rewards and receive slisBNB, then stake that slisBNB in Binance Launchpool to earn airdrops. This "double reward" increases BNB stickiness. It eliminates the opportunity cost of participating in DeFi, locking more supply in smart contracts.

3.4 On-chain activity, fund flows, and transaction intentions

In 2025, BNB Chain adopted a "defense first, counterattack later" strategy . In the first half of the year, it successfully retained its existing retail investor base and followed market trends. In the second half, it found its own rhythm, leveraging the resources of the Binance mainnet to launch a counterattack. The highlights of 2025 were the explosive growth of Binance Alpha (which enabled the pancake swap) and the significant trading volume generated by Aster. However, ecosystem innovation showed signs of fatigue, with more emphasis on replication (such as copying the Meme feature).

In 2025, the average TVL on BNB Chain stabilized at approximately $65 billion (peaking at $90 billion). While lower than Ethereum's peak, it boasted higher capital turnover and transaction activity. This was thanks to Aster's "transaction incentive program," Binance Alpha's "points farming" program, and Four Memes' meme rush program. These three components allowed BNB Chain to compete on equal footing with its rivals in transaction activity, and in some cases, even surpass them.

3.5 The Binance Alpha Phenomenon: Pancake's Comeback Battle

Binance Alpha's performance in 2025 can be described as a "concubine entering the palace." It successfully bridged the massive user base of CEXs (centralized exchanges) with the liquidity of DeFi (decentralized finance), creating a huge "spillover effect."

It seamlessly redirected hundreds of millions of Binance App users to the blockchain via "One-Click". Data shows that its monthly active users (MAU) once exceeded 100 million, with a large number of CEX users completing on-chain interactions for the first time through the Alpha interface. On May 20, 2025, Binance Alpha set a record of $2 billion in single-day trading volume, an astonishing figure in the "pre-IPO market" (a market outside the main board).

The explosive growth of Binance Alpha also propelled PancakeSwap back to its former glory, reclaiming its position as the top DEX in terms of trading volume (even surpassing Uniswap at one point in Q2). According to incomplete on-chain statistics, Binance's "one-click DEX" entry contributed approximately 12% of PancakeSwap's new users; and because Alpha provided a zero-fee/low-slippage arbitrage channel between CEX and DEX, a staggering 18% of PancakeSwap's trading volume came from arbitrage activities related to Binance Alpha.

Binance Alpha essentially "fed" PancakeSwap Binance's massive user base and liquidity. For PancakeSwap, it was no longer just a DEX, but became an "on-chain extension" and "testing ground for new assets" for the Binance exchange. However, as time went by, market liquidity dwindled, studios monopolized the market, and Binance Alpha's glory gradually declined.

3.6 The "Aster" Phenomenon of BNB Chain: Miracles Happen with Great Force

Aster was the biggest dark horse of 2025, and also one of the most controversial protocols. Relying on extremely aggressive trading incentives and endorsements from industry leaders, Aster's daily trading volume on some days even exceeded $20 billion , briefly surpassing industry leader Hyperliquid and forcefully pulling BNB Chain back to the center stage of DeFi. (However, if you look at the total open interest, Aster might only have a fraction of its competitors'.)

(For Aster's location, see: https://x.com/agintender/status/1972549024856318180?s=20)

While the data is impressive, the market widely believes it involves significant wash trading and fraudulent activity. This makes BNB Chain's PERP data look very good, but its actual user engagement may not be as high as Solana and Hyperliquid.

Despite being criticized for "data fabrication," Aster is a "shot in the arm" for BNB Chain.

In 2025, Solana's frenzy for small-cap stocks drained most of the active capital. While BNB Chain's spot trading (Alpha and PancakeSwap) was stable, it lacked explosive potential; coupled with Hyperliquid's looming threat, Aster provided a reason for capital to "move"—high-yield farming.

Administrators are aware of the dangers of wash trading, but if we look at it from a holistic perspective: every transaction consumes BNB as gas, then it all makes sense. Aster contributed 15%-20% of the gas consumption on the BNB Chain in 2025, directly driving BNB deflation and supporting its price.

In the crypto world, TVL and Volume are themselves advertisements. Aster's impressive transaction data made institutions and retail investors feel that "BNB Chain can still compete," thus retaining some existing funds from flowing to competitors.

Unlike Hyperliquid (where users earn a living and build real trading strategies) or Jupiter (where retail investors bet on the rise and fall of memes), most of Aster's trading volume lacks genuine counterparty demand. Once the token price falls, the arbitrage opportunity disappears (i.e., the return value < transaction fees), and the trading volume instantly drops to zero. To maintain high trading volume, Aster must continuously issue new tokens to reward traders, trapped in a passive cycle of trading time for space. Data also shows that Aster's trading volume and fee capture capabilities are entering a downward trend.

Next, we may need to see how the market continues to predict trends.

IV. The Third Growth Curve: Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Arbitrage

The third growth curve is a new product of 2025: the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) of altcoins. This phenomenon represents the financialization of BNB as a corporate reserve asset, hoping to replicate Bitcoin's "MicroStrategy script," but unlike Bitcoin, BNB is an interest-bearing asset.

4.1 DAT Argument: Why do publicly traded companies buy BNB?

Listed companies in the US and international markets have begun using BNB as a primary treasury asset. The rationale involves three aspects:

Anti-inflation: BNB exhibits structural deflationary characteristics (due to burning).

Yield generation: Unlike idle Bitcoin, BNB generates approximately 2-5% native yield through staking, HODLer airdrop, and Launchpool.

Crypto-equity arbitrage: A company may be trading at a premium to its net asset value (NAV), allowing it to raise cheap capital to buy more BNB.

4.2 CEA Industries (Nasdaq: BNC)

CEA Industries, formerly an e-cigarette technology company on the verge of delisting, has become "the BNB version of MicroStrategy." The company has explicitly stated its goal is to acquire 1% of BNB's total supply (approximately 1.3-1.4 million tokens).

CEA raised funds by issuing shares at the "at-the-market" price and selling them at a premium. They sold 856,275 shares at an average price of $15.09 to purchase BNB. As of November 18, 2025, CEA Industries reported holding 515,054 BNB, valued at approximately $481 million.

It's worth noting that the company reported a yield of approximately 1.5% over several months (August to November), implying an annualized return of over 5%. This yield sets a good example—it covers the cost of capital (such as interest on convertible notes) and serves as a model for other treasury companies.

The company's cost base is approximately $851.29/BNB. By the end of 2025, with BNB trading near this level, the portfolio is on the break-even/profit-making edge. However, the large open interest (0.37% of total supply) means that CEA Industries has effectively removed a significant amount of spot liquidity from the market, further reducing liquidity.

Currently, CEA's NAV premium (mNAV) is around 2.1x, meaning investors are willing to spend $2.10 to buy $1 of the company's BNB holdings. Some analysts believe this may be due to it being the only channel for institutions to buy BNB on Nasdaq. However, this article argues that the primary reason is BNB's leverage effect: during the BNB rally in Q4 2025 (when BNB broke through the $1,200 all-time high), BNC's stock price increase was typically 1.5 to 2 times that of BNB's spot price increase. However, when BNB corrects by 5%, BNC often falls by 10% to 15%. This is because once market sentiment cools, its high NAV premium of 2x will quickly compress (valuation correction).

4.3 Nano Labs (Nasdaq: NA)

Nano Labs, a Hong Kong-based chip design company listed on Nasdaq, followed closely behind.

$45 Million ATM: Nano Labs has reached an agreement to raise $45 million through equity financing specifically to fund its "BNB and Crypto Asset Reserve Strategy." In addition, Nano Labs is integrating this treasury with its business operations, launching the "NBNB Initiative," building real-world asset (RWA) infrastructure on the BNB Chain, and issuing $500 million in convertible notes to aggressively acquire BNB. The company aims to accumulate approximately 128,000 BNB by mid-2025.

As of the end of 2025, its publicly disclosed holdings were valued at approximately $112 million to $160 million (including BNB and a small amount of BTC). While this is still short of $1 billion, it represents a "full-risk, all-in" position for a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of only tens of millions of dollars.

By 2025, including only CEA and Nano Labs, over 643,000 BNB will be locked in corporate treasuries. This represents nearly 0.5% of the circulating supply. As this trend matures, the "free float" of BNB will decrease, increasing volatility and upward price pressure during periods of surging demand.

4.4 Premium/Discount Arbitrage Cycle

The engine of the DAT curve is the NAV premium. As long as there's a trading premium, the publicly traded company can continuously raise funds to buy the token, thereby driving up the company's trading premium. (Related reading: What's next after the price halved? Decoding the antifragile mechanism and breakthrough secrets of DAT companies)

If CEA Industries' stock ($BNC) trades at a market capitalization of $600 million, but its underlying BNB is valued at $481 million, then the premium is approximately 25%.

The company can issue new shares at this inflated valuation. Investors buy shares to gain exposure to BNB (though they may not be able to directly hold the tokens due to licensing restrictions). The company uses cash to buy more BNB. This buying pressure drives up the price of BNB. The rising price of BNB increases the company's NAV. If the premium persists, the share price will rise further. But the question is, in this market environment, are there still institutions willing to pay for DAT?

There is actually a fourth growth curve, but it's too early to say for sure.

On a side note, can Abu Dhabi, which just announced its appointment as Binance's global headquarters, stay with this industry giant for the long haul? Will the couple, after their honeymoon period, finally tie the knot? Let's wait and see.

Conflict of interest: The author holds $BNB.

postscript

Traditional cryptocurrency valuation models (MV=PQ) fail to capture the complexity of BNB. Therefore, a sum-of-parts (SOTP) model is recommended to aggregate the value across the three curves.

BNB = V_Yield + V_Commodity + V_MonetaryPremium

Component A: V_Yield (Exchange Curve)

We can compare BNB's valuation to its closest publicly traded peer, Coinbase (COIN).

Coinbase Metrics (2025): Coinbase's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is approximately 20.51, and its price-to-sales ratio (P/S) is 10.34. Its revenue in 2024 is estimated at approximately $6.2 billion.

You can calculate the Binance metrics yourself by substituting the values.

Component B: V_Commodity (Public Chain Curve)

This stems from the demand for gas and the value of TVL.

BNB Chain handles approximately 17 million transactions daily. If we value the network using a "Network Value to Transaction (NVT)" ratio comparable to high-speed L1, we can compare it to ETH and SOL.

Component C: V_MonetaryPremium (DAT curve)

This is a speculative premium resulting from institutional hoarding.

As DAT locks in supply, the marginal price of available BNB rises. "Tradable supply" decreases.

Historically, assets that become institutional reserves (such as gold or Bitcoin) have commanded a premium over their industrial uses in terms of liquidity access (shell value).