SpaceX IPO tipped to be biggest market debut ever

Last year, Elon Musk confirmed what everyone on Wall Street has been waiting to hear: SpaceX is going public this year. The so-called eccentric billionaire told reporters last month that claims about the company’s IPO timeline were “accurate,” as Cryptopolitan reported.

That alone sent markets buzzing. But what’s really causing the stir is the price tag. After a recent share sale valued the firm at $800 billion, SpaceX is now aiming for a $1.5 trillion valuation when it finally hits the stock market.

That number would crush the previous record held by Saudi Aramco’s IPO in 2019. If this thing actually launches at that level, it’ll be the largest public offering in history. And investors aren’t wasting time. They’ve already been buying in privately, betting that once the company opens to the public, it’ll blow past anything the market has seen before.

Baron and Wood go all in as launch numbers explode

Ron Baron, the man behind Baron Capital, told Bloomberg that nearly 25% of his personal portfolio is now in SpaceX. That’s not a typo. One in every four of his investment dollars is riding on Musk’s space venture. His Baron Partners Fund is also heavily tied to the company. Same goes for Cathie Wood, whose ARK Venture Fund has SpaceX as its top holding.

According to Jefferies analysts, SpaceX set a new record in the final quarter of 2025, hitting 971 launches into low-Earth orbit, which is over 30% more than the Q3 and a huge 70% surge from the same time last year.

Across the full year, SpaceX managed to fire off more than 3,200 satellites, the highest count ever for a twelve-month period. That total was 60% higher than what they did the year before. Kevin Lin, an analyst at Jefferies, told clients the company’s launch pace is “accelerating.” He didn’t mince words. While Amazon’s LEO unit has hit what it calls a stable launch phase, Lin says it’s “lagging” far behind.

In a scramble to catch up, Amazon said in November that businesses could start testing its rebranded Leo offering. That’s its best shot at closing the gap with Musk’s Starlink, which has already locked in thousands of active satellites. Lin expects the total launch count across all providers to keep climbing in the near future.

AI arms race pulls tech giants toward space data centers

The launch game isn’t even the end of the story. Lin said something else is cooking, and it has nothing to do with tourists or satellites. It’s about data centers in space. With the AI boom putting strain on Earth’s energy supply, tech giants are now scouting for new ways to build infrastructure. Lin told clients this is where SpaceX could dominate next.

Lin believes this sector could “drive” the entire growth of the LEO market over the next decade. If SpaceX finds a way to put servers in orbit, the company’s reach could expand far beyond rockets.

But not everyone’s sold just yet. Edison Yu, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, warned there are still major problems to fix before this becomes reality. That hasn’t stopped the big names. Yu noted that Google and OpenAI are also testing ways to make orbital computing work. “There are clearly technical challenges to making this a viable endeavor,” Yu wrote, “but these seem to be engineering constraints as opposed to physics.”

If SpaceX lands that kind of lead, it would only boost Musk’s already sky-high wealth. His $1 trillion compensation package from Tesla got the greenlight from shareholders in late 2025. But even with that approval, the electric vehicle side of his empire isn’t exactly flying.

Tesla reported weaker-than-expected fourth quarter deliveries last week. That cost Musk his crown as the world’s top EV seller, with BYD now taking the lead. Tesla shares did end the year up more than 11%, but that was well below the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500. Worse, the gains don’t even come close to the 60% and 100% jumps seen in 2023 and 2024.

Now the spotlight is on SpaceX, and the street’s not just watching. It’s betting that this IPO will be the one people talk about for decades.