Bitcoin Treasury Model Faces Grayscale-Style Discount Warning

Nearly 40% of top Bitcoin treasury companies trade below NAV, with Strategy at 17% discount, raising consolidation and M&A concerns.

Valuation pressure is mounting on Bitcoin treasury companies as nearly 40% of the top 100 firms now trade below the net asset value of their Bitcoin holdings. The equity financing under these conditions is value-destructive. Macro analyst Alex Kruger compared the current model with the 2020 pre-collapse premium of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, stating it was unsustainable.

Treasury Companies Experience Steep NAV Discounts

According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, at least 37 of the top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies trade below their NAV. Brian Huang, co-founder of investment platform Glider, said “the first wave of hype is over,” ushering in the end of the premium era.

During early 2025, treasury companies issued stocks worth more than the value of Bitcoin, with the proceeds used to purchase additional coins without diluting shareholders, a model that is now broken.

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Nearly 200 public companies are now holding more than 1 million Bitcoin valued at about $96 billion. Leading firms such as Strategy used to trade above twice their Bitcoin value. Today, Strategy shares trade with a discount of approximately 17%.

The decline started in October, with most of the treasuries lagging behind benchmarks such as the S&P 500, which yielded 16% in 2025. France’s The Blockchain Group was the only treasury to beat the S&P 500 in that year.

Macro analyst Alex Kruger pointed out that June 2025 is similar to the December 2020 Grayscale trade. GBTC trading at a high premium in 2020 since institutional investors were bereft of regulated exposure to Bitcoin.

On the other hand, there were Spot Bitcoin ETFs later, which eliminated this premium, and GBTC eventually traded down to discounts of up to 50%. Analysts fear that some treasury companies might experience similar collapses in relation to the amount of Bitcoin they own.

Capital Challenges Threaten Treasury Expansion Model

When treasury company stock is below NAV, there is dilution of the actual shareholders and the limited ability to raise money by issuing new shares. This dynamic can lead to a “spiral of doom” where falling demand helps drive share prices down, further lowering demand. Reports show 60% of Bitcoin treasury invested more in acquiring Bitcoin than what the current market prices are worth, making the sector’s expansion model risky.

The present scenario highlights the pitfalls in using equity premiums in the growth of treasury. However, consolidation and mergers are the best way for companies that are subject to NAV discounts. The sector’s dependence on overvalued appraisal has decreased, compelling companies to revise their ordering and focus on market stability rather than on aggressive Bitcoin acquisition.

In conclusion, Bitcoin treasury companies are confronted with structural issues as NAV discounts increase. With Strategy at 17% discount and almost 40% of companies under NAV, the model risks a repeat of Grayscale-scale type dislocation. Investors are advised to pay close attention to valuations and the possibility of consolidation, mergers, and strategic realignments.

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