Bitcoin [BTC] saw high Spot ETF inflows in the first half of the year. Demand from retail and institutional investors saw the leading crypto set a new all-time high of $126k in the first week of October.
The pullback over the last ten weeks has transitioned into a bear market now, according to analysts. In fact, according to CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno, 2026 might not see a return to new all-time highs.
At the time of writing, the rising stablecoin supply suggested buying power was present, but sidelined. If this changes, a Bitcoin rally to $100k in January would be possible.
Choppy market conditions give Bitcoin buyers pause
A recent AMBCrypto report revealed that short-term positioning from sophisticated market participants was defensive. The 1-week 25-Delta Risk Reversal metric showed that institutions preferred to hedge against price drops, instead of betting on aggressive breakouts.
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
The 1-day chart revealed that the predominant trend was bearish. The selling pressure was hefty, and the buyers were unable to drive a lasting rally. The attempted move above the $94k-resistance was rebuffed too.
Over the past two weeks, the $90k-level has been a stern local resistance. A bullish move above these two resistances does not seem imminent, based on the evidence at hand.
Why a Bitcoin move beyond $90k is likely
Source: CoinGlass
Liquidity attracts prices. The cluster of short liquidations from $91k-$96.4k and its proximity to Bitcoin’s market price meant that a short-term rally may be highly likely. This rally could go higher than $96k if it manages to cause a liquidation cascade.
Since it would be driven primarily by the derivatives market, the move might be forced to retrace. Traders can use such a liquidity sweep to take profits or sell some of their holdings.
Traders’ call to action – Stay sidelined
The market conditions were risky for both the bulls and the bears. The low liquidity around the festive season saw multiple sharp rejections from the $90k-resistance. There was also evidence that sell pressure from long-term holders was minimal.
As Benjamin Cowen pointed out in November, a bounce to the 200-day moving average (Currently at $106.8k) would mark a macro lower high. Traders should not expect the rally to continue to new all-time highs.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin has lacked a strong short-term trend, facing multiple rejections at the $90k-resistance over the past two weeks.
- Liquidity clustered overhead means a rally to $94k-$96k is possible in January.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoins-price-to-100k-again-in-january-here-are-the-odds/
