Bitcoin Closes Below 50-Week MA: Will $101K Reclaim Decide the Next Move?

TLDR

• Bitcoin opened the year below $90K and continues trading near $89K after failing to reclaim the $90K level.
• Bitcoin currently trades below the 50-week simple moving average, which stands at $101,614, according to Bitcoinsensus.
• The latest weekly candle closed below the 50WSMA, ending a long period where the level acted as support.
• Bitcoin trades near $88,872, following a series of lower highs formed after the mid-2025 peak.
• Bitcoin closed 2025 in negative territory, breaking its 14-year post-halving cycle streak for the first time.

Bitcoin opened the new year with a trading price below $90K, and the digital asset still trades within the year-end price of $89K. Despite the struggle in flipping the $90K level, market analysts have weighed in on the next price trend.

Bitcoin Loses 50-Week Moving Average Support

According to an observation by Bitcoinsensus, the Bitcoin price is currently trading below the 50-week simple moving average (50WSMA), which is plotted at $101,614.40. The chart indicates that Bitcoin has previously utilized this level as support, with multiple rebounds occurring after it was touched or approached the moving average.

Source: X

In the latest trend, the Bitcoin price has failed to maintain a position above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (50WSMA), marking a notable deviation from earlier bullish behavior. The latest weekly candle closed below this moving average, breaking long-term support. A red circle marks a potential retest zone near $101,600, which has acted as a critical level.

The Bitcoin price chart includes a downward arrow projection from this zone, indicating potential price weakness ahead. Bitcoin’s current level hovers around $88,872, remaining below the 50WSMA. This reflects a shift from the earlier pattern where price consistently found support at the moving average. The move beneath this indicator follows a series of lower highs since the peak in mid-2025.

Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Streak Ends After 14 Years

Bitcoinsensus observation reveals a confusing start for the Bitcoin price following a struggle towards the end of the year. To validate this, Blockonomi’s recent report revealed how Bitcoin price broke the 14-year halving cycle by closing the year in red. According to our report, Bitcoin closed 2025 with losses, marking a break from its historical four-year cycle for the first time.

Since 2012, halving years have typically ended with gains, followed by even stronger performance in the subsequent year. However, this cycle shifted in 2025 despite a strong 2024. Blockonomi mentioned this disruption, confirming 2025 as the first post-halving year to record a decline. The change challenges over a decade of predictable Bitcoin price behavior.

Analysts had used the four-year rhythm to forecast trends, but this latest outcome signals a possible shift in how the market responds. The loss in 2025 breaks a 14-year pattern and raises questions about Bitcoin’s evolving market dynamics amid changing macro and institutional factors.

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