2026 is here, and investors are busy reshuffling portfolios.
However, with macro volatility still in its early phases, treating the current chop as a clear breakout signal may be premature. In this environment, capital rotation into higher-risk assets is likely to remain gradual.
Against this backdrop, HODLer conviction becomes critical. Notably, for Solana [SOL], the stakes are especially high. In fact, from a technical standpoint, SOL stood out as the worst-performing large-cap, ending 2025 down 35%.
Source: TradingView (SOL/USDT)
That’s not all either as since September, SOL hasn’t carved out a reliable support.
Technically, Solana has printed four lower lows, with the most recent forming near $120. This suggested that the support remains fragile, putting HODLer conviction to the test, where capitulation may appear to be the safer option.
That being said, Solana’s 2026 roadmap tells us a different story.
From key network upgrades and sector-wise development to strategic partnerships, the ecosystem appears to be positioning for renewed “FOMO.” In fact, some projections are even calling for a $400 year-end target.
Solana’s 2026 setup – Conviction vs. technical weakness
Given SOL’s setup, a $400-target looks stretched.
However, its weakness hasn’t shown up in institutional positioning yet. In fact, 2025 marked a key inflection point, with Solana making real progress in putting its on-chain capabilities to practical use.
A clear signal of this shift is RWA TVL, which reflects the capital being tokenized on-chain. On Solana, RWA value has climbed to a record $800 million – Up 325% from the start of 2025. That’s $600 million in net inflows.
Source: DeFiLlama
Put simply, Solana’s fundamentals are reinforcing HODLing sentiment.
Now, looking at the 2026 roadmap, this isn’t random. With institutional positioning starting to translate into real on-chain use, Solana is clearly gearing its ecosystem to attract more institutional capital.
That makes the $400-target hard to ignore.
Since HODLer conviction is holding, once the market shifts back to risk-on, SOL’s technical weakness could give way. All in, Solana’s 2026 setup looks solid, with fundamentals, adoption, and roadmap momentum lining up.
Final Thoughts
- Solana remains the worst-performing large-cap, testing HODLer conviction.
- However, 2026’s roadmap may be building up momentum for renewed FOMO.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/solanas-2026-target-momentum-fomo-and-the-400-question/
