XRP trades below key technical level, analysts point to historical rally patterns

Ripple’s XRP has traded below its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) for 70 days, a technical level that preceded significant price increases in previous market cycles, according to cryptocurrency analysts.

Summary

• Analysts are split, with some pointing to XRP historical patterns and fractal models suggesting a potential rally window into mid-to-late 2026.
• Others warn of a sharp correction if key levels fail.
• Rising exchange inflows and mixed technical signals suggest growing selling pressure, keeping near-term price action uncertain.

Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto has documented this pattern across three previous cycles. In 2017, XRP traded below the 50-week SMA for 70 days before climbing more than 200%, according to the analyst’s data. In 2021, a 49-day period below the same level preceded a 70% gain.

In 2024, after 84 days below the SMA, XRP rose more than 850%, the analyst stated.

The token has now completed a 70-day period under the SMA, with no breakout confirmed, according to the analyst’s chart data.

Steph Is Crypto noted that XRP’s current 2025 chart pattern resembles earlier formations from 2016 and 2024. In both years, the price followed a three-wave correction pattern lasting 120 to 150 days before breaking out, the analyst reported. The 2025 chart shows a similar structure, now reaching 150 days, characterized by sideways price action and low trading volume.

Analyst Egrag Crypto has published a fractal model that tracks XRP’s price behavior with approximately 82% accuracy, according to the analyst’s statements.

The model includes a range of potential price levels dependent on XRP continuing to follow the historical path. The analyst stated that a break below certain lower bounds would weaken or invalidate the model, and specified a time range for possible price expansion between June and October 2026.

Analyst CryptoWZRD stated that the price needs to remain above a key level to maintain bullish territory, and identified nearby support and resistance points.

Analyst Ali Martinez raised concerns about a potential short-term correction, warning that XRP could decline more than 55% if certain technical levels fail. Martinez pointed to technical indicators that could signal a path toward lower prices if the token continues to face rejection near key resistance levels.

Binance reportedly accounts for the largest share of XRP trading volume. Higher exchange inflows are often interpreted by market observers as an indication that traders may be preparing to sell.