- BTC continues to defend the $84,000–$85,000 demand zone despite ongoing ETF outflows.
- Price remains capped below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, keeping the structure corrective.
- Corporate accumulation offers long-term support, but weak spot flows block breakout attempts.
Bitcoin price today trades near $87,400, holding above short-term support as buyers attempt to stabilize price inside a developing ascending base. The market remains caught between defensive spot flows and firm structural demand, keeping price compressed heading into the final trading session of 2025.
ETF Outflows Continue To Pressure Spot Demand
BTC ETF Flows (Source: SoSoValue)U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a $19.3 million net outflow on December 29, extending a run of cautious institutional positioning. Total value traded stood at $2.27 billion, reflecting steady activity but limited conviction on the buy side.
BlackRock’s IBIT led redemptions with $7.9 million in daily outflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC was the only major fund to record modest inflows. Despite cumulative net inflows remaining strong at $56.6 billion, the short-term trend shows funds reducing exposure rather than adding aggressively at current levels.
Structure Holds Above Key Demand Zone
BTC Key Technical Levels (Source: TradingView)On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues to respect a rising support trendline drawn from the mid-November lows. Price has repeatedly bounced from the $84,000 to $85,000 demand zone, where buyers have shown willingness to defend value.
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However, the recovery remains constrained beneath the EMA cluster. The 20-day EMA near $88,200 and 50-day EMA around $91,900 have both turned into overhead resistance. The 100-day EMA near $97,500 and the 200-day EMA close to $100,800 define the broader ceiling that bulls must reclaim to shift trend control.
Until price closes above the 20-day EMA with follow-through, the structure remains corrective rather than trend-resuming.
Short-Term Charts Reflect Compression
BTC Price Action (Source: TradingView)Lower timeframes highlight growing compression. On the 3-hour chart, Bitcoin is trading near the middle of its Bollinger Bands, signaling balance after the sharp November selloff. Volatility has contracted, often a precursor to directional expansion.
The Bollinger upper band near $89,300 continues to reject rallies, while the lower band near $86,300 provides short-term support. This narrowing range shows indecision, with neither side able to force a decisive break.
Chaikin Money Flow remains slightly negative, confirming that capital inflows have yet to meaningfully return. Without renewed spot demand, upside attempts risk fading near resistance.
Corporate Accumulation Offers Structural Support
One stabilizing factor comes from corporate accumulation. Strategy disclosed the purchase of 1,229 BTC last week for $108.8 million, lifting total holdings to 672,497 BTC. The firm has now accumulated Bitcoin in 41 separate weeks during 2025, marking its most aggressive buying year on record.
Despite this, the market response has been muted. Strategy shares ended the year down roughly 47%, highlighting a growing disconnect between corporate accumulation and equity market confidence. While long-term demand remains intact, it has not yet translated into sustained upside pressure for spot Bitcoin.
This dynamic reinforces the idea that accumulation alone is not enough. Price still needs supportive flows and improving technical acceptance to move higher.
Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?
Bitcoin is consolidating, not breaking down, but upside remains capped by weak spot flows.
- Bullish case: Price holds above $86,000 and reclaims $91,900 with strong volume. That move shifts momentum back toward $97,500 and reopens the path to $100,000.
- Bearish case: A daily close below $84,000 breaks rising support and confirms a deeper correction toward $80,000.
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Source: https://coinedition.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-btc-holds-84000-support-but-etf-flows-block-breakout/
