January Rate Cut Probabilities Rise

Key Points:

• Federal Reserve’s upcoming minutes are crucial for January rate expectations.
• Rate cut probability increased to 18.3% on CME “Fed Watch”.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum show no immediate reaction to Federal Reserve minutes.

The Federal Reserve will release its December meeting minutes tomorrow at 3 AM, shedding light on potential January monetary policy changes amid rising rate cut probabilities.

The upcoming release has investors speculating on market shifts, with CME Fed Watch forecasting an 18.3% rate cut probability, potentially impacting cryptocurrency and financial markets.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady Amid Market Speculation

The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting on December 9–10, 2025, where the board chose to maintain current interest rates amidst moderate economic expansion, included discussions among key leaders. Jerome H. Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, stated:

Current financial markets reflect notable shifts in interest rate expectations, with a rise to 18.3% probability on CME for a 25 basis point cut in January. Polymarket however, holds at 13%, suggesting cautious sentiments among participants.

Digital Assets Steady as Rate Cut Odds Fluctuate

Did you know? In January 2025, a similar anticipation about Federal Reserve minutes led to an 11% increase in the rate-cut probability within a week.

Bitcoin’s current price is $87,787.77 with a market cap of formatNumber(1753044977028, 2). Notably, Bitcoin’s price decreased 2.00% in the past 24 hours, yet it maintains a market dominance of 58.94%. The daily trading volume reached $38.15 billion, marking a 24.45% change. This data is acquired from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 08:46 UTC on December 30, 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap

Insights from the Coincu research team suggest potential regulatory and financial implications following the Federal Reserve’s policy indications. Historical analysis indicates possible impacts on global economic dynamics, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies for stakeholders. For projections on economic forecasts, consult the FOMC projections table.

DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.

Source: https://coincu.com/analysis/fed-minutes-january-rate-cut/