SUI price has spent recent sessions consolidating within a narrow range. The action reflect controlled participation rather than aggressive repositioning. That stability emerged as the market absorbed a scheduled $78.9M token unlock, a supply event that often disrupts short-term structure.
Nevertheless, the behavior of prices was in order, indicating that positioning was modified without distribution. The question now shifts to whether this absorbed supply strengthens the base or constrains upside expansion.
Token Unlock Absorption Shapes SUI Price Stability
The $78.9M SUI token unlock introduced a clear supply increase, yet SUI valuation remained supported above the $1.40 area. This signals that the event had largely been priced in. The major weakness associated with token unlocking is usually manifested in the form of rapid downside continuation that did not occur in this instance.
Instead, price held its range, implying that newly unlocked tokens either met sufficient demand or were not immediately sold into the market.
This act is indicative of equilibrium and not speculative absorption. Large unlocks tend to break structure, and price tends to fall rapidly, but SUI held its ground, containing volatility.
In turn, this preserved near-term price integrity and reduced forced selling risk. With SUI price trading in the mid-$1.50 region, the unlock acted as a structural stress test rather than a destabilizing catalyst.
SUI Price Tests Channel Resistance as Momentum Builds
SUI is leaving an accumulation phase and has spent several weeks squashing into a distinctly defined descending channel.
The past daily candles are becoming smaller and the lower wicks are becoming shorter towards the upper boundary of the channel. This shows that the downside follow-through is getting weaker and not the sellers defending the lower levels.
This shift in candle action is important, as the price is no longer growing down. However, the larger formation has not yet completely inverted to the bullish.
The rebound that began on Tuesday reinforces this change. During that session, SUI jumped out of the $1.34 support zone as the MACD crossed above its signal line. This means that the momentum changed with the price strength but not with expectation.
Since, the candles have been decreasing in order of their appearance with higher lows. The structure imply that buyers are intervening earlier and taking up supply nearer to resistance. As a result, price has stabilized near the channel ceiling instead of rejecting sharply, which keeps breakout conditions intact.
When SUI drives beyond the descending channel, the price will attempt a move towards the 50 EMA around the level of $1.67. Historically, compressed structures tend to unwind around the dynamic resistance. A breakout above the $1.70 mark would turn this previous resistance into structural support. If long-term holders outweigh short-term traders , and the $2.10 supply zone will be the next target.
While short-term profit-taking could slow momentum, continued higher-low formation supports a constructive long-term SUI price outlook. Eventually, a reclaim of the $3 level before the end of Q1 2026 remaining viable if structure holds.
SUI/USDT Daily Chart (Source: TradingView)Summary
To sum up, SUI has assimilated its biggest near-term supply occasion without disrupting the price structure . which continues to hold the prevailing bias constructive. As long as price stays above the previous accumulation base, the more likely outcome is continuation.
This outlook will only be undermined if SUI fails to hold at $1.34 and cannot hold higher lows, which would indicate distribution and not absorption. Until this happens, structure is biased towards expansion rather than exhaustion.
Source: https://coingape.com/markets/sui-price-forecast-whats-next-for-sui-in-2026-after-78-9m-token-unlocks/
