Is the BTC Price Headed to $85K?

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls worry that institutional interest is weakening amid softer demand for BTC futures. However, other metrics suggest that the BTC price could avoid falling below $85,000.

Key takeaways:

• BTC futures open interest fell to $42B, an eighth-month low, signalling a leverage flush rather than bearish bets.

• Bitcoin options pricing suggests stabilizing sentiment.

BTC futures open interest hits eight-month low

Bitcoin faced another rejection after briefly testing the $89,000 level on Friday. The move caught traders off guard, liquidating more than $260 million in leveraged BTC futures positions.

BTC futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: Coinglass / Cointelegraph

Aggregate BTC futures open interest on major exchanges fell to $42 billion on Friday from $47 billion two weeks earlier, marking the lowest level in eight months. Still, the sharp drop in leverage is not inherently bearish, since longs and shorts are always matched.

Investor unease intensified after a five-day outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs totalling $825 million. While this represents less than 1% of the combined $116 billion in deposits, traders fear the bullish momentum seen in October has faded amid global economic uncertainty.

Precious metals soar amid economic uncertainty

Gold and silver climbed to new all-time highs on Friday as investors sought protection from rising United States debt.

Demand for government-backed debt increased, pushing yields on the US 10-year Treasury to a three-week low of 4.12%. Part of the skepticism toward US monetary policy stems from inconsistent signals around import tariffs.

Gold (left) vs. US 10-year Treasury yield (right). Source: TradingView

President Donald Trump’s administration said on Tuesday that duties on Chinese semiconductor imports were postponed until June 2027.

In the previous week, the US government lifted restrictions on Nvidia’s second-most powerful artificial intelligence chips exported to China, which had previously been banned by the Joe Biden administration over national security concerns, according to Reuters.

Bitcoin’s basis rate recovers

The Bitcoin monthly futures premium helps assess whether whales and market makers have turned bearish. Under neutral conditions, BTC futures typically trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium, known as the basis rate, to compensate for the longer settlement period.

Given Bitcoin’s repeated failures to reclaim the $90,000 level since Oct. 12, some pessimism, i.e. a lower basis, should be expected.

Bitcoin 3-month futures basis rate. Source: laevitas.ch

But the Bitcoin futures basis rate stood at 5% on Friday, unchanged from the prior week. While slightly bearish, the metric has moved away from the sub-4% levels observed on Dec. 18, when Bitcoin traded below $85,000.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin options market can help determine whether whales and market makers expect further downside.

Bitcoin options 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

The delta skew measures the cost of put (sell) options relative to call (buy) instruments. When sentiment weakens, the metric rises above the neutral 6% threshold, while bullish phases typically push it into negative territory.

Even when investor concerns stem from signs of softer economic activity, Bitcoin continues to behave like a high-risk asset, while precious metals have rallied.

Related: Crypto ETFs set to explode higher in 2026, analysts say

However, the decline in BTC futures and options open interest, along with roughly 1% net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, does not by itself signal a sustained bear market, particularly when Bitcoin options metrics and the basis rate remain healthy.

Although a retest of the $85,000 support level remains possible, the bulls appear to be gradually regaining confidence, even if Bitcoin fails to break above $90,000 in the near term.

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