January Final Crypto Rally, Bull Trap Expected by March

Bitcoin nears a record annual derivatives settlement as historical trends show hedging release can shift price action.

Bitcoin markets are entering a sensitive period as trading volumes thin and derivatives reach record settlement levels. Price action remains tight, while traders track seasonal patterns and past expiry behavior in the crypto market.

Record Bitcoin Options Settlement and Market Structure

Bitcoin faces its largest annual options settlement on December 26, 2025, with a notional value of $23.6 billion. Trading has stayed narrow due to holiday liquidity, and prices hovered between $85,000 and $90,000. 

Furthermore, derivatives data show strong gamma hedging, and this activity reduced short-term price swings. Similar conditions appeared before prior annual settlements, and volatility stayed compressed. Historical settlements show varied outcomes, and movements often followed the release of hedging pressure. 

In December 2023, prices broke higher after consolidation, and volume increased within days. March and September 2024 settlements also saw volatility expansion, while June showed mixed results. These patterns show that settlement events can shift momentum, but direction varies with macro conditions.

Seasonal Price Trends and Uptober Performance in 2025

Bitcoin has often gained during October, and the period is widely known for positive returns. In 2025, October broke that pattern, and prices fell about five percent. Higher Treasury yields stayed above four percent, and this limited risk appetite. Expectations for rate cuts were priced earlier, while inflation concerns remained.

Despite the October decline, Bitcoin stayed positive for most of the year before that period. Gains through September exceeded major equity indexes, supported by rate cuts and ETF inflows. The April halving reduced new supply, and institutional adoption expanded steadily. These factors supported prices, although profit-taking increased near record levels.

Related Readings: BTC News Today: Bitcoin Short Squeeze Likely Amid Hopes of Bullish US CPI Report

Bull Run Timelines and Post Settlement Expectations

Some market participants shared structured timelines for a possible 2026 bull run. The schedule points to accumulation in December, followed by a Bitcoin rally in January. February is marked for altcoin activity, while March signals a bull trap phase. Later months suggest capitulation and a broader bear phase by May.

Analysts reviewing settlement history expect higher volatility after the December 2025 expiry. Previous annual events often removed price constraints caused by hedging. With thin liquidity, price moves could accelerate, and resistance near 90,000 dollars is closely watched. Attention remains on macro policy and investor flows as the new year approaches.

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