Bitcoin’s future through early 2026 may be determined by how much volume continues to be traded during this holiday season. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe reports that there is now a major crypto resistance zone at $90,000 that must be broken before continuing higher. With Bitcoin unable to break that psychological resistance level, the price has retraced down to try and hold the critical support areas around $86,500. Meanwhile, the wider market is seeing less institutional buying pressure than ever before.
Technical Analysis Indicates Long Term Consolidation
The chart analysis shows a textbook resistance rejection pattern which has become familiar to Bitcoin traders. Throughout December, multiple efforts to reclaim the $90,000 threshold have been consistently blocked by increased selling pressure from both short-term traders and institutions, resulting in reduced exposure.
This resistance zone is a confluence of technical factors such as previous support turned resistance and the 50-day moving average. Bitcoin is struggling to sustain its momentum above the $88,000 mark and is ranging in the volatile territory of $85,000 to $94,000. The key resistance level at $90,000 proved impossible to breach so Bitcoin backed down in search of adequate buying support at $86,500.
The Dynamic of Institutional and the Holiday Factor
The holiday season traditionally means no trading and less liquidity, so it is unlikely that any major moves in either direction will occur in the near-term. Analysts suggest that from late December to early January, there is a strong possibility for Bitcoin to reach $90,000 and attempt a significant breakout.
Recent data from spot Bitcoin exchange trade funds supports this cautious outlook. According to SoSoValue, the net outflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs was $497.05 million during the week ending December 20, which was the highest weekly outflow since November 21. This institutional hesitancy has added downward pressure as retail trading naturally decreases with holidays.
Why $100,000 Is Still the Ultimate Goal
Despite the bearish pressure in the near-term, many analysts are bullish for the long-term outlook. The expectation is that Nasdaq breaks to an all-time high and Bitcoin runs to $100,000, implying a healthy correction that is well and truly part of a longer bull market.
Bitcoin has a maximum possible supply of twenty-one million coins and by having increased institutional investment, regulatory certainty supports Bitcoin further through continuing to gain value. Bitcoin faces little to no resistance after it breaks through $90,000. Therefore, the immediate large resistance zones would be in the $94k to $94.6k zone (immediate) and $98k to $110k range (next) zone of resistance.
Multiple forecast models indicate that Bitcoin may hit $100,000 to $110,000 by the end of December 2025, assuming that macro-economic conditions are stabilized. This approach requires patience and a willingness to embrace further consolidation. Bitcoin will need to first form strong support at $86,500 before it gathers strength for the next leg up.
Conclusion
The inability to reach above $90,000 despite several attempts means that the market requires more time to generate momentum for the upcoming sustained rally. With institutional investors being nervous during this holiday season, we would have an immediate consolidation situation. However, this phase may mean that the stage is being set for a powerful move in early 2026 if Bitcoin holds current support levels while providing an opportunity for investors to accumulate ahead another big leg up.
Source: https://blockchainreporter.net/bitcoin-fails-90k-breakout-as-traders-eye-86-5k-support-before-next-bull-run/
