Bitcoin’s Weak End to 2025 Doesn’t Mean Bearish Q1 2026, Says Expert

It has been a disappointing 2025 for Bitcoin BTC $87 083 24h volatility: 0.5% Market cap: $1.74 T Vol. 24h: $35.93 B investors, as the largest crypto asset is trading 2.81% down so far this year. Furthermore, hopes of a Santa rally have waned with trading volumes drying up during the holiday season. Bitcoin investor Anthony Pompliano noted that just the fact that BTC didn’t deliver expected returns in Q4 does not mean that it would crash in Q1 2026.

Anthony Pompliano Hopeful of Better Bitcoin Performance In Q1 2026

In his recent CNBC interview, Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano said that the lack of a year-end BTC price rally could serve as a catalyst for a better performance in Q1 2026.

“Given where the volatility is right now, it would be very surprising that Bitcoin’s volatility has drastically compressed and yet still could get a 70% or 80% drawdown,” he said.

Bitcoin investors have been facing disappointment, especially after several calls of a $250,000 rally by the year-end. However, Pompliano noted that BTC’s long-term performance remains intact.

He noted that Bitcoin has delivered substantial gains over recent years, rising about 100% over the past two years and nearly 300% over the last three. “We have to remember that Bitcoin is up 100% in two years. It’s up almost 300% in three years. It has been compounding,” he said, adding that the asset has been “a monster in financial markets.”

He also highlighted that Bitcoin’s declining volatility has received far less attention than its price pullback since the start of the year. “We didn’t get a blowoff top that I think people expected at the end of Q3, or beginning of Q4, but we haven’t seen the big 80% drawdown that people normally expect as well,” Pompliano said.

Q1 2026 Will Be a Critical Period for Crypto

Crypto market analyst Daan Crypto Trades described the past month in digital asset markets as largely uneventful. He noted that the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be a critical period for the market. He said investors will be closely watching Bitcoin during that time to assess whether the current cycle still has room to run or if it has already peaked.

Asset manager VanEck said Bitcoin is likely to enter 2026 with “mixed but constructive” signals, with consolidation seen as more probable than either a sharp rally or a major downturn.

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