VanEck Says Bitcoin Hashrate Dip Could Set Up 2026 Rally

Bitcoin (BTC) slid deeper into a difficult end to 2025 as selling pressure intensified in December, pushing the network hash rate down by roughly 4% over 30 days, according to VanEck’s latest Bitcoin ChainCheck.

The drop, which coincided with Bitcoin’s weakest fourth quarter since 2018, is being framed by VanEck as a rare setup that has often come right before stronger long-term returns rather than prolonged weakness.

Hashrate Drop, Miner Stress, and Diverging Investor Behavior

Bitcoin’s price has struggled through December, falling about 9% over the past month and hovering around $87,000, after briefly trading near $81,000 in late November. According to VanEck, volatility climbed above 45%, the highest level since April, while speculative appetite cooled sharply. Perpetual futures funding also slipped to roughly 5% annualized, well below the yearly average, reflecting reduced leverage across derivatives markets.

Against this backdrop, the investment firm flagged miner stress as a key development. It pointed out that network hashing power, measured on a 30-day moving average, recorded its steepest pullback since April 2024.

The report noted that profitability has been squeezed by lower prices and rising competition, with breakeven electricity costs for older S19 XP miners dropping to about $0.08 per kWh from $0.12 a year earlier. Shutdowns in China’s Xinjiang region may have removed close to 10% of global hash power as authorities redirected it toward AI data centers.

VanEck wrote that “the network hash rate dropped 4%, the sharpest decline since April 2024,” adding that similar periods have “historically marked bullish contrarian setups.”

At the same time, capital flows showed a split market. Bitcoin ETP holdings fell by 120 basis points month over month, while corporate digital asset treasuries added about 42,000 BTC, their largest accumulation since July. Strategy accounted for most of those purchases, taking advantage of its ability to issue equity, while others paused.

Why VanEck Sees Long-Term Upside Despite Weak Prices

On-chain data paints a mixed picture, with medium-term holders, particularly BTC that last moved one to five years ago, trimming exposure, while the oldest cohorts have remained largely steady. VanEck described this as a “diamond hands divergence,” where short-cycle participants are exiting while long-term holders are staying put.

Historically, a shrinking hash rate has favored patient investors. VanEck’s analysis shows that when 90-day hash rate growth turns negative, Bitcoin’s 180-day forward returns have been positive 77% of the time, with average gains of around 72%.

Meanwhile, price action remains fragile, with Bitcoin down about 22% over the past three months, marking its worst Q4 since the 2018 crash. Even so, some market watchers argue the selloff reflects a reset rather than lasting damage. Analyst Sykodelic wrote that recent weakness represents a structural cooling phase, not a break in Bitcoin’s longer-term trend.

For now, VanEck’s takeaway may present cautious optimism for traders. While weak on-chain activity and miner pressure still weigh on sentiment, improving liquidity conditions and reduced leverage suggest groundwork for a healthier cycle is building, with 2026 increasingly framed as the horizon where today’s stress could pay off.

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