US Unemployment Jumps to 4.6%, Crypto Analysts Expect Bitcoin Bull Run

The United States unemployment rate came in worse than expected on December 16, at 4.6% versus the forecasted 4.5%—both higher than the previous data at 4.4%. While a stalled job market could signal a recession, crypto analysts believe this data could trigger economic dynamics that are bullish for scarce assets like Bitcoin BTC $87 478 24h volatility: 1.9% Market cap: $1.74 T Vol. 24h: $53.51 B .

Macroeconomic analysts like The Kobeissi Letter (TKL) and Heather Long have commented on the matter on December 16 on X. Heather Long highlighted this is the highest US unemployment rate since September 2021, despite nonfarm payrolls adding 64,000 new jobs to the economy against the expected 50,000 jobs added for November. TKL traced the same divergence and concluded, “The labor market is still weakening.”

“Only healthcare and construction were hiring,” Long, chief economist at Navy Federal, added, commenting that other sectors are flatlining or laying off workers. In another post, the prominent economics columnist explained that “almost no jobs have been added since April.” Moreover, she highlighted slowing wage gains, plus 710,000 more unemployed people in the United States than what data showed in November 2024.

Bull Theory, a trader and market researcher, posted that this outlook could cause the Federal Reserve to “do more easing in 2026.” Meaning he expects more rate cuts and higher liquidity injection in the form of T-bill purchases for the following year, adding to what Jerome Powell already announced in the December 14 FOMC meeting.

Bitcoin Price Analysis at Record US Unemployment Rates

In this context, Michaël van de Poppe is “obviously bullish” on what he calls “scarce assets,” as, he says, “the money printer is inevitably going to be fired on and that’s going to activate the bull run on Bitcoin.”

Nevertheless, this will only happen, in his opinion, because this is overall negative news for the US economy—forcing the Fed to act internally in an attempt to activate the economy.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $88,000, already recovering from the price crash BTC and other cryptocurrencies experienced on December 15, as Coinspeaker reported. This results in 1.84% accumulated gains in the past three hours of this writing, since the unemployment data was released—showing a, so far, positive reaction from Bitcoin, as Michaël analyzed.

Bitcoin (BTC) one-hour price chart, as of December 16, 2025 | Source: TradingView

However, Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet, as it is still testing the 50-hour exponential moving average (1H50EMA), trading on the bearish side of this short-term trend indicator. Breaking out above the 1H50EMA would set a more optimistic technical outlook, but BTC will still need to break the same indicator at higher time frames like the four-hour and one-day price charts against the US dollar.

Positive news remains popping out in the crypto industry, with relevant names making strong moves around cryptocurrencies, blockchain, and stablecoins. For example, Visa is launching stablecoin settlement in the United States, which will utilize Circle’s USDC and Arc Blockchain.

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