Strategy (MSTR) Stock: Company Eyes Another Bitcoin Buy While Sentiment Hits Extreme Fear

TLDR

• Michael Saylor posted “Back to More Orange Dots” on Sunday, hinting at another Bitcoin purchase for Strategy as BTC fell to $87,600
• Strategy currently holds 660,624 BTC worth approximately $58.5 billion with an average cost of $74,696 per coin
• Polymarket shows 98% probability that Bank of Japan will raise rates by 0.25% on Friday, with analysts linking rate hikes to crypto selling pressure
• Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped below 21, placing market sentiment in extreme fear territory
• Bitcoin futures trading volume decreased 24% to $49 billion while open interest rose 3.2% to $60.7 billion, indicating positioning without momentum

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Bitcoin crashed to $87,600 on Sunday night. Strategy chairman Michael Saylor responded with his signature move.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price

He posted “Back to More Orange Dots” on X alongside a portfolio chart. The orange dots represent Bitcoin purchases on Strategy’s balance sheet. It’s become his calling card.

The timing wasn’t random. Bitcoin hit a two-week low during Sunday’s trading session. The last time BTC traded at these levels was December 2, when it was climbing back from $84,000.

Strategy’s last purchase happened on December 12. The company bought 10,624 BTC in its largest acquisition since late July. That brought their total holdings to 660,624 BTC.

At current prices, that stash is worth $58.5 billion. Their average cost per coin sits at $74,696. The company remains profitable on its Bitcoin bet. But the cushion is getting thinner.

Bank of Japan Rate Decision Spooks Markets

Analysts are pointing fingers at Japan. The Bank of Japan meets Friday. Polymarket puts the odds of a 0.25% rate hike at 98%.

That matters for crypto. Japan holds more US debt than any other country. When Japanese rates rise, global capital flows shift. Risk assets take a hit.

Analyst NoLimit warned on Sunday that markets are underestimating the impact. Previous Japanese rate hikes preceded Bitcoin crashes. The pattern is well documented.

He explained that Japanese rate expectations triggered concerns about another carry trade unwind. That forces macro funds and day traders to reduce positions. They’re bracing for more downside.

Not everyone buys the Japan narrative. Analyst Sykodelic said the rate hike is already priced in. Markets move on anticipation, not the event itself.

Options Activity Caps Bitcoin Upside

Bitwise Alpha head Jeff Park identified a structural problem. Early Bitcoin holders are selling call options. That creates artificial supply pressure.

Bitcoin ETFs keep absorbing spot coins. But the price isn’t responding. Park says the options selling explains why.

The disconnect shows up in derivatives data. BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF has positive call skew. That means traders are paying premium for upside protection.

But native Bitcoin options tell a different story. The supply of volatility from early holders keeps a lid on rallies.

Market Sentiment Hits Extreme Fear

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped below 21. That puts sentiment in extreme fear territory. Readings have hovered near these levels for weeks.

CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin futures volume fell 24% to $49 billion. Lower volume means less conviction. Traders are sitting on their hands.

Open interest tells a different story. It climbed 3.2% to $60.7 billion. Rising open interest with falling volume is a classic sign of positioning without momentum.

The market is stuck. D’Anethan expects Bitcoin to stay range-bound between $80,000 and $100,000. Traders are waiting for a catalyst that might not come.

Bitcoin recovered above $89,000 by Monday morning after Sunday’s dip to $87,600.

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