Bitcoin’s growth history shows notable patterns that analysts often use to project future trends. Recently, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, released a fresh analysis based on Bitcoin’s developmental wave model.
Experts remain optimistic about next year, yet they still present their outlook with caution.
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How Strong Is Bitcoin’s Sixth Growth Wave?
In a recent report, Jurrien Timmer highlighted that Bitcoin’s wave-development model shows each new growth cycle expands with a smaller magnitude but lasts longer.
Using historical data since 2010, Timmer suggested that Bitcoin is currently in its fifth wave. The cycle began at the 2022 bottom of $16,603 and may reach a projected peak of around $151,360.
5 Waves of Bitcoin Growth. Source: FidelityIn the short term, he remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s year-end performance. Investor sentiment has improved thanks to the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing.
In the long term, he hinted at a sixth growth wave. The model utilizes linear projections derived from data collected over the previous five waves.
According to this model, Bitcoin’s Descending Slope chart (in pink) indicates:
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Bitcoin’s Descending Slope. Source: Fidelity- Wave 4: BTC grew 20 times over 153 weeks from its bottom to its top.
- Wave 5 (ongoing): BTC may grow 9 times over 160 weeks.
- Wave 6 (upcoming): BTC may grow approximately 5 times over 168 weeks.
However, the model does not determine the exact bottom that will start Wave 6. Timmer suggested a potential support level at the current cycle’s floor around $80,554.
These projections indicate a relatively positive start for 2026, as Bitcoin has not yet completed its fifth wave.
Jimmy Xue, COO and Co-founder of Axis, shared a similar outlook with BeInCrypto. He expects the effect of the Fed’s rate cuts to show up soon.
However, some observations point to a more pessimistic scenario. The year 2026 is a midterm election year. Historical performance shows that Bitcoin tends to perform poorly in such years, with drawdowns ranging from 60% to 75%.
These contrasting analyses signal an adventurous 2026 for investors. Institutional investors, in particular, have continued to accumulate BTC over the past two years since Bitcoin ETFs received approval.
Source: https://beincrypto.com/fidelity-predicts-bitcoins-sixth-growth-wave/
