Trading Moments: Bitcoin battles between bulls and bears at 92,000; Oracle and Moore's Threads drag down AI sector.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Precious metals performed particularly well, driven by expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds monthly. Gold broke through its December high, approaching the $4,290 mark, while spot silver surged to $64, hitting a new all-time high . However, the US labor market showed signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims surging by 44,000 to 236,000 last week, marking the largest weekly increase since the pandemic . Coupled with data showing a narrowing trade deficit, this has kept the market wary of the economic outlook. Meanwhile, China held its Central Economic Work Conference , setting the tone for economic work in 2026 and clarifying the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand and technological innovation. However, in the consumer goods sector, Moutai prices continue to face pressure. The price of 25-year-old Feitian Moutai has fallen below the psychological threshold of 1499 yuan , declining by more than 30% from around 2200 yuan at the beginning of the year. Industry insiders worry that the continued price decline may lead to reduced profits or even losses for distributors, potentially triggering a vicious cycle of "price drop → sell-off → further decline." Looking ahead, analysts generally believe that global central bank policies will further diverge in 2026. The Federal Reserve's end to QT and balance sheet expansion will bring a liquidity turning point, but the pressure of dollar depreciation may force the European Central Bank to struggle to balance inflation and exchange rates.

The recent hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) faced a real test this week, with market doubts about the return on AI investments triggering a general pullback in tech stocks. Oracle's stock price plummeted by as much as 16% intraday due to slower-than-expected growth in cloud infrastructure revenue and an upward revision of its capital expenditure guidance to $50 billion, wiping out over $68.9 billion in market capitalization in a single day (some estimates even suggest $102 billion). Investment banks such as UBS and Morgan Stanley lowered their target prices for the company. Earnings reports showed that its profit growth relied heavily on non-recurring gains, putting pressure on the profitability of its core business. Despite better-than-expected revenue and profit in the fourth quarter, with AI revenue growing by 65%, Broadcom 's stock price still fell 1.94% in after-hours trading, reflecting cautious market sentiment. Meanwhile, OpenAI released its most advanced model, GPT-5.2, and announced a $1 billion collaboration agreement with Walt Disney, directly causing Google's stock price to fall by 2.43%. Domestically, Moore Threads, as the "first domestically produced GPU stock," saw its share price surge by over 723% after its IPO, pushing its market capitalization above 440 billion yuan. After reaching a new high of 941.08 yuan and a cumulative increase of 723%, the company issued a risk warning announcement last night, stating that its fundamentals remained unchanged, new products were still in the R&D stage, and the short-term impact on performance was limited. This morning, the share price briefly fell by over 15%, dropping below 800 yuan.

Bitcoin is currently trading between $92,000 and $94,000. On-chain data shows a decrease in large-scale transfers to exchanges, easing selling pressure. CryptoQuant points out that if the trend continues, BTC could rebound to $99,000 or even $112,000. Man of Bitcoin analysis suggests that BTC remains above its upward trend line, and a break above the upper edge of the wedge pattern would target the $96,962 to $102,432 area. However, bearish forces remain strong. Analyst Astronomer has opened a short position at $92,700, targeting a pullback to $87,700. Killa suggests that Bitcoin could surge to $94,000 or even higher in the short term, but a subsequent pullback is possible. He plans to add to his position in the $95,000 to $98,000 range and predicts that Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 or even $60,000 next year. Ted also pointed out that the current trend is strikingly similar to the previous cycle, and if the scenario repeats itself, it will surge to $100,000 before plummeting to below $70,000. In terms of market predictions, traders generally believe there is only about a 30% probability of breaking through $100,000 before the end of the year. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warned that a new "Santa Claus rally" may not occur, and BTC may fall below $84,000 by the end of the year. Currently, the market is focused on whether BTC can hold the $90,000-$91,000 support zone. If it breaks down, it may test the bottom of the current range; if it stabilizes, it may challenge the $94,000 resistance level again.

Regarding Ethereum , market sentiment is oscillating between ETF inflows and technical pressures. Despite a rebound in net inflows into spot ETFs to $21.5 billion, prices remain capped by key resistance levels. Ali points out that ETH faces two solid support levels: $3,150 (with 2.8 million tokens accumulated) and $2,800 (with 3.6 million tokens accumulated); Glassnode data places key support at $2,770. Delphi Digital analyst that1618guy is optimistic about future price movements, believing ETH has held above the daily crossover and completed its pullback. If Bitcoin breaks through $94,000, Ethereum could follow suit to the $3,600-$3,800 range. However, Man of Bitcoin cautions investors, noting the formation of a small bearish triangle and the possibility of a further test of $3,150. A break below the trendline would be a clear warning signal.

Furthermore , Do Kwon 's trial has finally concluded. The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York announced that Do Kwon, founder of Terraform Labs, has been formally sentenced to 15 years in prison for securities fraud and wire fraud, among other charges. This news directly caused related tokens such as LUNA, LUNC, and USTC to plummet by nearly 30% within 24 hours.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, December 12)

(Data source: GMGN, CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $92,551 (-1.12% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $46.5 billion

• Ethereum: $3,253 (-2.5% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $24.01 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 29 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.46%, ETH 12.2%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL, BARD

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.95% / 50.05%

• Sector Performance: Layer 2 sector rose 3.6%, DeFi sector rose 3.2%.

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 89,358 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $241 million. This included $96.93 million in BTC liquidations, $55.15 million in ETH liquidations, and $11.79 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of December 11)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$77.3419 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$42.3734 million

• Solana ETF: +11.02 million USD

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will list RaveDAO (RAVE).

• Talus Foundation: The US airdrop claim portal is now open and closes on December 14th.

• Bittensor will undergo its first halving on December 14th, at which time the daily supply of TAO will decrease to 3600 tokens.

• The U.S. SEC's Cryptocurrency Working Group will hold a roundtable meeting on financial regulation and privacy on December 15.

• Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at midnight on December 12th, representing 0.83% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $19.3 million.

• Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock approximately 20.81 million tokens at 8:00 AM on December 13th, representing 2.86% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $10.8 million.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Zcash up 8.1%, Aave up 7.7%, MYX Finance up 7.3%, Mantle up 6.7%, and MemeCore up 6%.

5. Hot News

• China Construction Bank responded to the issue of Dogecoin being locked during transfers: If high risk is detected, the account will be set to a "no receiving, no sending" status.

• DOYR token creators issued nearly 10,000 MEME tokens through three linked addresses, earning over $1.2 million in total.

• So far in 2025, only one Bitcoin treasury company's stock price has outperformed the S&P 500.

• Jupiter will launch its stablecoin JupUSD next week.

• YouTube introduces new option to pay revenue to U.S. creators using stablecoins.

• Bloomberg: Coinbase plans to announce prediction markets and tokenized shares next week.

• The "1011 Insider Whale" added 41 BTC to its long position, bringing its total long BTC holdings to 1000 BTC.

• Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon sentenced to 15 years in prison by a U.S. judge.

• a16z releases "17 Crypto Trends for 2026," focusing on key areas such as RWA, AI agents, and privacy chains.

• Since the launch of its buyback program, Pump.fun has repurchased 13.8% of the circulating supply of PUMP tokens.

• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and is expected to cut rates only once in 2026.

• If SpaceX's IPO valuation reaches $1.5 trillion, Musk's net worth will approach $1 trillion.

• Sei will partner with Xiaomi to pre-install Web3 payment applications on new smartphones worldwide.