MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – SEPTEMBER 15: Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings scores a rushing touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium on September 15, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
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In every league, the fantasy football playoffs should be here, which means start or sit decisions are extremely important. In order to help with that, here’s some player analysis on some of the more interesting names in Week 15.
As we’ve done in every one of these past articles, these are the rules to go beyond the obvious. Any wide receiver or running back who’s listed in the start section must be outside the Top 18 in Fantasy Pros Week 15 expert consensus rankings (PPR).
At tight end, quarterback, and defense, those players need to be ranked beyond the top eight. On the flip side, all players who are named a sit of the week must be RB18/QB8 or above.
One final note is that when we’re referencing fantasy points allowed, those are for 0.5 PPR scoring. However, the concept is strong enough that it can be used for this article, which is referring to points in a PPR format.
Breakout Wide Receiver: Justin Jefferson (WR20 – Start)
Heading into the year, not many people thought Justin Jefferson would be averaging 12.1 PPG. You can argue that Jefferson can’t be in your starting lineup given that he’s had less than 12 points every game since Week 9, and it’s hard to completely ignore his rough year
However, Jefferson is very talented, and these struggles seem to be on J.J. McCarthy, who has had a really rough season. Last week McCarthy turned things around a bit though, throwing three touchdowns to go along with 163 passing yards.
As a young player, the hope is that McCarthy can build off this game, and Jefferson himself has a great matchup in Week 15. With Jefferson taking on the Dallas Cowboys, who have allowed the most PPG to wide receivers this year, now is the perfect spot for him to get back on track.
Sit Wide Receiver: Jameson Williams (WR15 – Sit)
For as good as Jameson Williams has been lately, he’s still averaging 12.5 PPG on the year. Despite drawing at least nine targets in back-to-back games, he has had six games of less than seven points.
For a player with a very low floor, matchup absolutely matters. With the Los Angeles Rams having allowed the 15th most PPG to wide receivers this year, it’s not a great spot for Williams.
To be fair, benching Williams at this point seems a bit risky as well, given how well he’s played. At the same time, when you take the larger sample size and matchup into account, it makes sense to bench Williams if you can.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – AUGUST 16: Ashton Jeanty #2 of the Las Vegas Raiders runs against Tatum Bethune #48 and Luke Gifford #57 of the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter of the NFL Preseason 2025 game at Allegiant Stadium on August 16, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)
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Breakout Running Back: Ashton Jeanty (RB21 – Start)
Similar to Jefferson, Ashton Jeanty is a very talented player stuck in a rough situation. Jeanty has actually been better than Jefferson this year, averaging 14.1 PPG on the year.
Over the last three weeks, Jeanty has been on a downward trend from 24.8 to 12.1 to 5.8 points. Although Jeanty hasn’t been very consistent, he’s at least had some high-scoring weeks in that span
The appeal for Jeanty this week is that he has a strong matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, who have allowed the 8th most PPG to running backs this year. When Jeanty has a really good matchup, it’s tough to leave him on your bench.
Sit Running Back: TreVeyon Henderson (RB14 – Sit)
With Rhamondre Stevenson back, it’s tough to trust TreVeyon Henderson anymore. In Week 13, Henderson had 11 carries compared to Stevenson’s 12.
That split between the two backs resulted in Henderson scoring just 11.6 points, and it’s hard to see Stevenson getting less work any time soon. The bull case for Henderson is that he faces the Buffalo Bills, who have allowed the 6th most PPG to running backs this year.
That still doesn’t change much, though, because my concern is Henderson not getting enough touches, which is going to make it hard to have a big fantasy game regardless.
Breakout Tight End: Jake Ferguson (TE9 – Start)
Jake Ferguson has cooled down as of late, but he’s still averaging 13.1 PPG on the year, which is phenomenal. In each of the last four weeks, Ferguson has had at least 10 points in three of them, and in that one game he didn’t, he still had 8.6 points.
Ferguson offers you a very strong floor, which is tough to find at the tight end position. The Minnesota Vikings matchup is slightly below average, having allowed the 17th most PPG to tight ends, but it’s not bad enough for me to bench Ferguson.
Sit Tight End: Brenton Strange (TE7 – Sit)
When comparing Ferguson and Brenton Strange, Ferguson is easily the pick here. Strange is averaging 9.2 PPG on the year, and over his past four weeks, he’s been a bit more boom or bust.
Although Strange has gone over 13 points twice, he’s had below six points in two of those four weeks. Not only that, but Strange actually has a worse matchup against the New York Jets, who have allowed the 18th most PPG this year.
Breakout Quarterback: Jared Goff (QB11 – Start)
Jared Goff is facing off against the Rams in a revenge game during Week 15. Although Goff doesn’t have the highest ceiling, this Detroit Lions offense is good enough to help him score fantasy points with his arm.
In the last three weeks, Goff has had two games with at least 16 points and at least one with 20. Although the Rams have allowed the 23rd most PPG, Goff has a high floor, and his recent play should make you feel good about playing him as a low end QB1.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 09: Jaxson Dart #6 of the New York Giants looks to pass the ball during the second quarter of an NFL Preseason 2025 game between New York Giants and Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on August 09, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
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Sit Quarterback: Jaxson Dart (QB8 – Sit)
The reason for wanting to bench Jaxson Dart this week has more to do with logic rather than hard statistical data. Dart has already been injured multiple times this year, and the New York Giants are now 2-11.
When Dart came back in Week 13, that was the only game of the year where he had less than 25 rushing yards, on top of not having a rushing touchdown. That resulted in just a meager 13.6 point game.
Dart has done enough to show he can be the franchise guy, which means this organization is likely going to want to dial back the run plays to protect him. Going up against the Washington Commanders, who have allowed the 6th most PPG to quarterbacks, is appealing, but the logic still makes me want to sit Dart.
Breakout D/ST: Carolina Panthers (D/ST11 – Start)
As talked about in previous articles, you want to look for the best and worst matchups for defenses when trying to find a sleeper. Although the New Orleans Saints just had a really strong game with 24 points, they’re still not an elite offense by any means.
On the year, the Saints have allowed the 5th most PPG to opposing defenses. Granted, Tyler Shough hasn’t played the full year, which skews these numbers slightly, but it’s still a strong matchup for the Carolina Panthers.
Sit D/ST: Denver Broncos (D/ST8 – Sit)
The Denver Broncos have been great this year with 8.2 PPG, compared to the Panthers at 5.5. The difference is that the Broncos have a very tough matchup in Week 15.
This week the Broncos take on the Green Bay Packers, who have allowed the 30th most PPG. If you’re deciding to start or sit the Broncos defense in Week 15, leaving them on your bench until they have a good matchup makes sense.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebradshaw/2025/12/10/week-15-fantasy-football-start-em-sit-em-justin-jefferson-treveyon-henderson-and-more/
