Analysts Warn Bitcoin Could Drop to $55K as Strategy Builds $1.44B Cash Reserve

Key Takeaways

• Strategy has built a $1.44B cash reserve, prompting speculation about preparation for a market downturn.
• The company rejects rumors of BTC selling and says the reserve is part of its liquidity framework.
• CryptoQuant believes a bearish cycle began in November and projects BTC could fall as low as $55K next year.

Instead, the pullback has revived questions about whether a deeper downturn is taking shape — and unexpectedly, Strategy has become central to the discussion.

Rather than focusing on price action alone, analysts are paying attention to unusual balance-sheet activity at the world’s most prominent corporate Bitcoin holder.

Why a Cash Reserve Is Raising Eyebrows

This week, Strategy quietly amassed a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar buffer, a move first highlighted by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The reserve is designated for dividend payments and interest obligations, but analysts believe it serves a broader purpose: insulating the company from having to sell Bitcoin if the economy weakens further.

CryptoQuant interprets the shift as part of a more defensive playbook. By strengthening its cash position, Strategy reduces the financial pressure that could otherwise force BTC liquidation during a recession — a scenario that could significantly disrupt the market given the size of its holdings.

Saylor Pushes Back, but Analysts Remain Skeptical

Rumors of BTC selling surfaced almost immediately, prompting CEO Michael Saylor to deny that any disposals had taken place. Even so, CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno argues that the company’s behavior reflects caution, not confidence.

Moreno notes that Strategy is now operating with a “dual-reserve” structure — Bitcoin as its core long-term asset and U.S. dollars as a liquidity shield. He says the establishment of such a large non-BTC reserve usually signals that a company is preparing for market stress, even if selling Bitcoin remains a last resort.

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Strategy Says It Can Operate for Years Without Selling Bitcoin

CFO Andrew Kang offered a different interpretation. According to him, the dollar reserve is tied to the firm’s internal liquidity framework and is activated when certain financial thresholds are met. He emphasized that, at BTC prices near $93,500, Strategy can cover operating needs and dividends for more than three years without touching its Bitcoin stack.

Kang insisted that BTC sales would only occur under “extreme circumstances,” reinforcing the company’s stance that Bitcoin remains central to its long-term plan.

Moreno argues that the downtrend has already begun, claiming the bearish phase started in early November. Looking ahead to 2026, he expects Bitcoin to trade between $70,000 and $55,000, with the lower target representing what he considers the “most bearish scenario.”

Market Watching Strategy as a Sentiment Indicator

Because Strategy’s treasury moves often serve as a sentiment gauge for institutions, the company’s cash buildup has instantly become a talking point among traders. Whether it represents routine financial planning or advance preparation for a prolonged downturn, its decisions are likely to influence how investors interpret Bitcoin’s next major move.

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