Vanguard’s Policy Reversal Triggers Sharp Bitcoin Rally as $11T Giant Enters Crypto

A new CryptoQuant report from XWIN Research Japan reveals that the sharp +6% Bitcoin rally on December 2–3, 2025 was triggered by a seismic shift in traditional finance: Vanguard’s unexpected policy reversal.

The $11 trillion asset manager—long known for its conservative stance—opened its platform to spot ETFs for BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL, instantly giving more than 50 million investors access to crypto products. The move marks one of the most significant steps toward mainstream adoption in the industry’s history.

The catalyst behind this reversal was the appointment of Salim Ramji, Vanguard’s new CEO and a former BlackRock executive who played a key role in launching the IBIT ETF. His leadership signaled a dramatic change in direction, and the market responded immediately.

Once US markets opened, Bitcoin surged 6% in a single move, while IBIT surpassed $1 billion in trading volume within the first 30 minutes. Massive inflows from retail and retirement accounts followed, with Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas noting that “a large wave of Vanguard clients may have moved all at once.”

Institutional Demand Builds as Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Recovers

XWIN Research Japan notes that, despite the recent surge, the Coinbase Premium Index remains in negative territory, showing that US prices still sit slightly below global averages. Even so, the report highlights a clear improvement in US spot buying pressure, signaling that demand is slowly returning.

If the premium rises back to zero or positive territory, the market may begin to price in what XWIN calls the “next wave” — a phase that could propel Bitcoin toward the $100K range as institutional flows strengthen.

This shift is happening just as Vanguard makes its historic entrance into the crypto market. XWIN emphasizes that this is not a short-term catalyst. Vanguard manages $11 trillion, and even a tiny allocation — just 0.5% of assets flowing into crypto ETFs — would represent $55 billion in new capital. That figure alone exceeds the entire first-year inflow from the 2024 spot Bitcoin ETF cycle.

With the “final giant” of traditional finance now participating, the long-term structure of Bitcoin demand is changing. Vanguard’s move signals the beginning of a genuine institutional adoption phase, where inflows can scale far beyond anything seen in previous cycles, potentially redefining Bitcoin’s upper price boundaries.

Price Rebounds From Weekly Support but Faces Major Resistance

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a strong rebound from the $84,000–$86,000 support zone, an area that aligns closely with the 100-week SMA. This level acted as a critical pivot during previous corrections, and once again buyers stepped in aggressively, forming a clear bullish reaction. The long lower wick from last week’s candle confirms strong demand, with BTC now trading back above $93,000.

However, despite the rebound, the broader structure remains cautious. Bitcoin still trades below the 50-week SMA, which has begun to flatten near the $102,000–$103,000 region. This moving average now acts as a major resistance level and the next key test for bulls. A weekly close above it would mark a meaningful shift in momentum and signal that BTC may be ready to resume its broader uptrend.

If BTC continues to hold above the 100-week SMA and pushes toward the 50-week SMA, the market could enter a consolidation phase that sets the stage for a stronger upside move. Failure to reclaim $102K, however, risks renewed selling pressure and a potential retest of the $86K region.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com