Trader Analyzes Market Conditions and Gives a Forecast for Bitcoin and Ethereum

• Bitcoin holds a key range, but momentum remains weak.
• Macroeconomics remains a major source of volatility.
• Bitcoin price movement scenarios diverge from testing $100,000 to deepening correction towards $78,000.

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The current market picture remains mixed as technical levels hold, but the fundamental backdrop does not provide a sustainable direction. This is the assessment given by ArturAmir, a trading direction mentor in the Incrypted+ closed community.

The analyst has formed several scenarios on quotes movement, reflecting the balance of risks and possible points of growth in the near future.

As the expert noted, the last trading sessions were influenced by contradictory news. Even moderate deviations in business activity or regulators’ comments led to noticeable fluctuations on the market.

Completion of the Quantitative tightening (QT) program from the Federal Reserve System (FRS) has not yet had the expected effect. Liquidity has not strengthened, and some data on the U.S. is released with a delay, which reduces transparency for institutional players.

An additional factor, according to the expert, is the rate hike in Japan, which strengthened the yen and hit the carry-trade. This, in turn, brought additional volatility to the currency market.

Bank of Japan key rate chart. Data: TradingView.

Internal sources of pressure remain, the analyst noted. According to him, the possibility of new payments to American households, which can support consumer liquidity, is now being discussed. However, it does not form a direct signal for risky assets yet.

Against the background of the mentioned factors, investors are recording outflows from spot ETFs, including large withdrawals from BlackRock funds. The focus also remains on bitcoin giant Strategy, which holds around 650,000 BTC and is under pressure amid price fluctuations.

All of this is shaping a more cautious attitude of the big players towards potential risks.

Inflows/outflows in the US spot bitcoin-ETF sector from October 1 to December 2, 2025. Data: SoSoValue.

As the expert noted, the technical picture demonstrates price compression in the range and lack of volumes in the spot market. For bitcoin, the key remains to hold the $92,000-$93,000 level.

As long as the price has not consolidated above these marks, any growth attempts are accompanied by liquidity withdrawal and are quickly absorbed, the analyst believes. He pointed to the fact that in recent weeks, it was not uncommon for daily liquidation volume to approach or even exceed the $1 billion level.

The volume of liquidations on futures contracts in the crypto asset market over the past 24 hours. Source: CoinGlass.

According to the analyst, this indicates that some players continue to take local price hikes as the beginning of a new trend.

At the same time, he emphasized the gradual reduction of market overheating. The average leverage is decreasing, the number of aggressive longs is decreasing, and the first premiums indicating live demand are appearing on some spot platforms.

As for altcoins, they, according to the expert, show mixed dynamics. At the same time, intraday activity remains in a number of pairs.

The dollar index remains within the range of 103–98 points. Its movement towards the lower boundary may increase interest in risky assets, while strengthening will create additional obstacles, the expert said.

Chart of the US dollar index. Data: TradingView.

As a result of analyzing the market, our expert has formed several options for the development of events.

Bitcoin

The basic positive scenario for the first cryptocurrency assumes the closure of local liquidity zones and consolidation above the range of $92,000-$93,000. In this case, the market could open the way to $96,000-$98,000 and test the psychological level of $100,000, the analyst believes.

Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on the Binance exchange. Data: TradingView.

However, this option, according to the expert, is possible only if the demand on the spot and stable macroeconomic background remain.

The scenario of a deep correction implies a movement under the lows of the previous week with a test of the $78,000-$80,000 area. As the trader emphasized, a quick breakdown and return inside the range remains a classic variant of liquidity removal amid high concentration of stops.

The short-term technical option is a move to $93,000-$94,000 to close the four-hour FVG followed by a reversal under the $88,000 area. This scenario is possible if large capital continues to take profits on the upside.

Ethereum and Other Altcoins

According to the analyst, Ethereum maintains a weaker structure. The asset could test the $2620, $2480 and even $2300-$2500 levels where unfilled liquidity zones remain.

Hourly chart of ETH/USDT on the Binance exchange. Data: TradingView.

These areas can become potential points for the formation of a reversal structure, the expert noted. According to him, there are localized bursts of activity in the altcoin market, and bitcoin’s dominance has slightly receded.

All this creates separate opportunities for short-term trading, said the analyst.

Summing up, the analyst emphasized that the current market structure remains unstable. Price movements are determined not only by level logic, but also by the news background.

In such an environment, it is necessary to observe the price reaction to key zones, the behavior of major players and the state of spot liquidity, the expert believes. The optimal approach implies moderate risk, predetermined levels and readiness to realize both growth scenarios and deeper pullback options.

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