Bitcoin Dipped Below 'Fair Value' for First Time in 2 Years, History Says 132% Gains Next 12 Months

Markets

Share

Share this article

Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail

Bitcoin Dipped Below 'Fair Value' for First Time in 2 Years, History Says 132% Gains Next 12 Months

Network reset complete: leverage flushed, LTHs accumulating and price back above fair value.

By James Van Straten|Edited by Nikhilesh De

Dec 2, 2025, 9:10 p.m.

BTC vs Metcalfe Value (Timothy Peterson, @nsquaredvalue)

What to know:

• BTC’s brief drop under Metcalfe network value has historically delivered +132% average 12-month returns (positive 96% of the time)
• Long-term holder supply up 50,000 BTC in just 10 days as coins mature and LTHs flip from net sellers to net accumulators.

Bitcoin BTC$91,518.88 briefly slipped below its network value based on Metcalfe value modeling for the first time in nearly two years, according to network economist Timothy Peterson.

This is typically a signal that often marks the late stages of market resets, he said.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters

Sign me up

By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy.

"While this does not necessarily signal a bottom, it does indicate that most leverage has been removed and the 'bubble' has deflated," Peterson said.

Metcalfe value estimates the fundamental worth of a network using activity and user-based growth, and has historically offered useful context during major cycle turns.

The dip below network value coincided with bitcoin’s steepest pullback of the cycle, a drop of about 36% that pushed the price to roughly $80,000. That move drained leverage and unwound speculative excess, which set the stage for a sharp rebound. Bitcoin has since recovered back above $90,000 as buyers stepped in and network conditions stabilized.

During the 2022 bear market, bitcoin spent the entire period trading below its Metcalfe value while activity and sentiment weakened. Since the new cycle began in early 2023, the price had remained consistently above this benchmark, supported by rising participation and renewed capital inflows. The latest correction was the first meaningful break of that trend.

Historically, periods when bitcoin trades below its Metcalfe value have delivered strong forward returns. Twelve-month performance in these conditions has been positive 96% of the time, with an average gain of 132%, compared to 75% and 68% for other periods, according to Peterson.

Tailwinds for the Network Growing

In addition, long-term holder (LTH) supply has increased significantly over the past 10 days, rising by approximately 50,000 BTC. LTHs are defined as investors who have held their bitcoin for at least 155 days. This cohort has been one of the primary sources of selling pressure over the past 12 months. As coins continue to mature from short-term speculative hands and migrate into LTH wallets, and with LTHs now accumulating rather than distributing on an aggregate net basis, this reduction in sell-side pressure should serve as a meaningful tailwind for bitcoin’s price.

LTH Supply (Glassnode)

Bitcoin News

More For You

Protocol Research: GoPlus Security

By CoinDesk Research

Nov 14, 2025

Commissioned byGoPlus

What to know:

• As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
• GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
• Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.

View Full Report

More For You

AAVE Rallies 14% as Bybit, Mantle Integration Connects DeFi Lender to 70M Users

By CD Analytics, Krisztian Sandor|Edited by Aoyon Ashraf

1 hour ago

The DeFi lender's native token broke above key resistance level, eyeing $190 as the next target level.

What to know:

• AAVE surged 14% on strong trading volume, outperforming crypto market benchmark CoinDesk 5's gains.
• Aave's expansion to the Mantle network connects the protocol with crypto exchange Bybit's 70 million user base.
• Technical breakout cleared $175 resistance, targeting $190 psychological level next, CoinDesk Research's market insight tool noted.

Read full story

Latest Crypto News

AAVE Rallies 14% as Bybit, Mantle Integration Connects DeFi Lender to 70M Users

1 hour ago

Why The Market Crashed On October 10, And Why It’s Struggling to Bounce

1 hour ago

Amazon Enters AI Arms Race as Crypto and Risk Asset Fears Mount

2 hours ago

Trump-Backed American Bitcoin Plunges 40% on Heavy Volume, Dragging Hut 8 Lower by 12%

3 hours ago

Bitcoin Volatility Breaks Out Vs VIX, Setting Up Possible Pair Trade Opportunity

3 hours ago

AI Investment to Drive Global Growth Through 2026, BofA Says

4 hours ago

Top Stories

Amazon Enters AI Arms Race as Crypto and Risk Asset Fears Mount

2 hours ago

Trump-Backed American Bitcoin Plunges 40% on Heavy Volume, Dragging Hut 8 Lower by 12%

3 hours ago

Bitcoin Surges Back Above $91K as Support Builds in $80K-$85K Area

5 hours ago

Bitcoin Volatility Breaks Out Vs VIX, Setting Up Possible Pair Trade Opportunity

3 hours ago

Strategy Gains Nearly 20% From Monday Low as Bear Gloating Suggests at Least Temporary Bottom

7 hours ago

Bank of America Greenlights Wealth Advisers to Recommend Up to 4% Bitcoin Allocation

7 hours ago