Memory Chip Crunch Threatens Price Hikes for Smartphones

According to analysts, your next phone or laptop may cost more than expected. The massive push to build artificial intelligence data centers is creating serious bottlenecks across electronics supply chains, and that’s bad news for gadget prices.

Companies are throwing hundreds of billions at AI infrastructure worldwide, per reports. The problem? Those data center chips come from the same suppliers making parts for your phone and laptop. Component prices are jumping, and there are real worries about shortages and higher costs down the line.

Peter Hanbury, a partner at Bain & Company’s technology practice, put it simply: “We see the rapid increase in demand for AI in data centers driving bottlenecks in many areas.”

Multiple Pressure Points

Eddie Wu, the CEO of Alibaba, gave one of the starkest warnings yet. His company builds AI systems and makes custom chips, which means he’s got a front-row seat to these supply problems. Wu flagged shortages hitting semiconductor producers, memory chips, and data storage equipment.

“There is a situation of undersupply,” Wu said. He called it “a relatively large bottleneck” that could stick around for two to three years.

Hard disk drives have become a major chokepoint. Production is maxed out, so companies like Microsoft and Google switched to solid-state drives instead. Here’s where it gets tricky. Those solid-state drives are the same ones that go into phones and laptops.

Then there’s memory chips. Counterpoint Research expects memory prices to jump 30% in the fourth quarter of this year, then climb another 20% in early 2026.

MS Hwang, research director at Counterpoint Research, says even small supply-demand gaps can cause big price swings. “Imbalances of 1-2% can trigger sharp price increases and we’re seeing that figure hitting 3% levels at the moment – this is very significant,” Hwang said.

Building more capacity takes massive investment. Suppliers got worried that market projections were too rosy, so they held back on expanding their pricey facilities.

“Now, the suppliers need to add capacity quickly but as we know, it takes 2-3 years to add semiconductor manufacturing fabs” Hanbury explained.

Nvidia’s “Seismic” Change

Nvidia runs the AI chip market, and a recent product change has made things worse for consumer electronics suppliers. The company’s increasingly using Low-Power Double Data Rate memory because it’s more power efficient.

The thing is, Samsung and Apple use that same memory technology. Supply chains used to handle demand from just a handful of big electronics makers. Now Nvidia’s in the mix too, competing for identical components.

“We also see a bigger risk on the horizon is with advanced memory as Nvidia’s recent pivot to LPDDR means they’re a customer on the scale of a major smartphone maker — a seismic shift for the supply chain which can’t easily absorb this scale of demand,” Hwang said.

Memory chips and storage make up roughly 10% to 25% of what it costs to build a typical computer or smartphone. If component prices jump 20% to 30%, the total materials cost goes up by 5% to 10%.

“In terms of timing, the impact will likely start shortly as component costs are already increasing and likely accelerate into next year,” Hanbury said.

Electronics companies are raising red flags. Xiaomi, the world’s third-largest smartphone seller, told Reuters this month that buyers should brace for “a sizeable rise in product retail prices.”

Jeff Clark, Dell’s chief operating officer, called the increases “unprecedented.” “We have not seen costs move at the rate that we’ve seen,” he said.

Beyond pricier gadgets, there’s a real chance of shortages. “Beyond the rise in cost there’s a second issue and that’s the inability to secure enough components, which constrains the production of electronic devices,” Hwang said.

It’s not just consumer electronics either. Cars, industrial equipment, aerospace, and defense all rely on the same manufacturing capabilities that are now focused on AI customers. They’ll “likely see some impact from these price increases as well,” Hanbury said.

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