Will Michael Saylor's Strategy Be Forced to Sell BTC?
At the start of December, the crypto market was on a losing streak as Bitcoin fell below $86,100, triggering fresh selling in other prominent tokens such as Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano.
Profit-taking and a lack of confidence have driven the market further down, leading to a cautious approach among traders following a challenging November.
As prices face ongoing challenges, a significant announcement from Strategy has introduced a new level of apprehension to an already delicate market. The company has become a prominent Bitcoin advocate on Wall Street thanks to its large reserve of about 650,000 BTC.
The group's financial indicators have been significantly impacted by the latest market correction, which has caused the price of BTC to fall.
Phong Le, the CEO of Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR), has recognized for the first time that the company might consider selling its 649,870 BTC holdings if certain crisis situations arise.
The biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin on a global scale has taken a new route, departing from chairman Michael Saylor's long-standing "never sell" position.
The confirmation of Bitcoin's likely sale as Strategy's primary treasury asset has unveiled a scenario that few could have anticipated.
Phong Le detailed the specific circumstances that would trigger the selling of Bitcoin during an interview with What Bitcoin Did:
- The first condition is that the stock of the company should be priced under 1x mNAV, indicating that the market cap is less than the worth of its Bitcoin assets.
- Secondly, only if Strategy finds itself unable to secure new funding via equity or debt offerings.
This suggests financial markets may be inaccessible or prohibitively costly to enter.
If the mNAV drops below 0.9, the company might have to resort to Bitcoin to meet its obligations, including the annual preferred dividend payments ranging from $750 million to $800 million.
As MSTR stock has declined more than 60% from its peak to $171.42 as Monday (-42.86% YTD) the challenge of securing new capital is increasing.
Saylor, though, has indirectly hinted at this shift by bringing up "adding green dots," which many take as an indication that selling is now an option, according to crypto researcher Jacob King.
Recent green dots, as Adrian points out, likely don't represent share buybacks or preferred-share transactions; instead, they might show Bitcoin accumulation through derivatives.
With 649,870 BTC in their possession, Strategy provides a substantial basis for institutional trust in the market.
Now that a clear selling threshold has been set, market participants will be watching the 0.9 mNAV line closely as it becomes a new structural risk point in the years leading up to 2026.
Even while the board isn't planning any sales anytime soon, the CEO did say that the option "is available" in case things go worse financially.
This is the first time that Michael Saylor's long-standing claim that "we will never sell Bitcoin" has been acknowledged clearly.
Saylor, though, continued to shore up his trust in Bitcoin.
But Strategy does have a mechanism that is directly related to liquidity limitations.
1x mNAV Threshold
In assessing Strategy's market value, mNAV incorporates the company's Bitcoin assets. When mNAV dips below 1, the corporation's value aligns with its Bitcoin assets.
Experts have also highlighted that the firm has recently faced a new constraint. For the first time since early 2024, the premium that fueled its Bitcoin-accumulation strategy is nearly nonexistent.
As of November 30th, mNAV stood at 0.95x, alarmingly near the 0.9x threshold.
The pressure on Strategy to fulfill its dividend commitments backed by Bitcoin would increase if mNAV falls below 0.9x. To protect shareholder interests in difficult times, the corporation may have to sell off assets from its treasury.
The difficulty stems from the fact that the company has preferred share dividend commitments of $750 million to $800 million per year, which were issued when the company was still growing its Bitcoin business.
The company used to handle these costs with new equity issues. That choice is narrowing as market distrust grows and the stock falls more than 60% from its high.
Astryx Research indicates that Strategy has essentially evolved into a “leveraged Bitcoin ETF with a software company attached.”
This framework is effective during upward movements in BTC, yet it heightens pressure when liquidity becomes constrained or when there are sudden fluctuations in the market.
Regulatory documents have consistently highlighted the potential for liquidity challenges during significant declines in Bitcoin's value.
Although the company asserts that it is not at risk of forced liquidation thanks to its convertible debt structure, the recent remarks from the CEO indicate a clearly defined mathematical trigger for voluntary sales.
When it comes to corporate Bitcoin holders, Strategy is unrivaled. For Bitcoin's institutional backers, the promise to "HODL forever" is now essential.
A more realistic view of the situation emerges when a sell condition is identified, regardless of how distant it may appear:
Cash flow can take precedence over beliefs. The framework of the market is just as crucial as the level of confidence you hold. The Bitcoin cycle has also introduced a new, quantifiable risk threshold: the 0.9x mNAV line.
Analysts are keeping an eye on mNAV to see if it stabilizes or if it continues to fall toward 0.9x; investors will be watching Monday's data closely.
If the price of Bitcoin or Strategy shares continues to fall, investors may start to question the company's financial strategy in the years leading up to 2026.
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