In brief
- Strategy stock is down significantly this year, leading some observers to speculate that the Bitcoin treasury might have to sell crypto.
- But analysts at Benchmark have said that the skeptics don’t understand how the company works.
- They reiterated a “buy” rating for the firm.
Investment bank Benchmark rejected recent skepticism of Bitcoin treasury Strategy, saying in a note Monday that the company’s stock remains an attractive opportunity for crypto exposure.
The “loudest” critics are “manifestly unfamiliar” with how Strategy works, equity Research Analyst Mark Palmer wrote in the note shared with Decrypt. He brushed aside concerns that Strategy could be in trouble, saying that BTC would have to drop below $12,700 and stay there for the company to suffer.
“In simple terms, the company would be unable to fully cover its ~$8.2bn of convertible debt outstanding if Bitcoin’s price were to fall below $12,700 and stay there,” Palmer wrote. “That would require a decline of ~86% from current levels. While drawdowns of 80%+ have occurred multiple times during bitcoin’s 17-year history, we believe multiple macro shocks would have to happen simultaneously to drive such a reversal at this point.”
Benchmark continued to give the firm a “buy” rating and $705 price target, based on the assumption that Bitcoin will reach $225,000 by the end of 2026.
“We believe Strategy’s stock remains one of the most powerful asymmetric vehicles in global markets because its balance-sheet architecture, capital-raising engine, and Bitcoin-linked reflexivity give it upside torque that no other equity can match,” Palmer wrote.
Nasdaq-listed Strategy—formerly MicroStrategy—started buying Bitcoin in 2020 as a way to protect shareholder returns. It has since spent $48.3 billion on the cryptocurrency largely using leverage and now holds 650,000 BTC worth $55.2 billion at today’s prices, making it the largest corporate holder of the digital coin.
Investors can get exposure to Bitcoin via stock and dividend-paying instruments that Strategy has issued.
But its stock has dropped this year after soaring in 2024. MSTR closed Monday trading at $171.24 and is down 43% year-to-date as the price of Bitcoin has erased its earlier 2025 gains.
Bitcoin was recently changing hands at a little over $85,779, more than 30% below its October record of $126,080, according to crypto markets data provider CoinGecko.
Year-to-date BTC is down about 9%, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s crypto-friendly policies.
Still, 54% of respondents in a Myriad prediction market expect BTC to rise to $100,000 in its next big move with the remainder forecasting a fall to $69,000. (Myriad is a unit of Dastan, the parent company of an editorially independent Decrypt.)
Strategy on Monday announced it had formed a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve as a vehicle to provide “very smooth continuous dividends,” when Bitcoin is down. It also didn’t rule out selling the cryptocurrency.
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Source: https://decrypt.co/350493/benchmark-bullish-strategy-stock-plunges-possibility-selling-bitcoin
