Analysis: The crypto market is nearing a local bottom, and a sustainable recovery is expected in the fourth quarter.

PANews reported on December 1st that Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates the market is nearing a local bottom from a time perspective, although whether the price has bottomed out remains to be seen. However, given extreme deleveraging, short-term holder selling, and signs of exhausting selling pressure, the market is poised to enter a stabilization phase. On-chain data further supports this view: the adjusted realized loss margin has fallen below 1 for the third time since early 2024, dynamically consistent with the loss realization at the cycle lows of August 2024 and April 2025. The current depth of realized losses is also reflected in the entity-adjusted realized losses, which have surged to $403.4 million daily, exceeding levels seen at previous major lows. Such a scale of realized losses typically indicates the sell-off is nearing its end, rather than the start of a new downtrend. Meanwhile, derivatives data also shows a similar orderly adjustment pattern: total open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures has fallen to $59.17 billion, far below the peak of $94.12 billion, indicating that leverage has been systematically cleared. The continued contraction in open interest coupled with rising spot prices indicates that short covering rather than new speculative risk-taking is driving the market, further reinforcing the view that the market is moving into a more stable consolidation phase. Market vulnerability has decreased, and a sustainable recovery is expected to take shape in the fourth quarter.

Over the past week, institutional consolidation in Bitcoin has deepened significantly. BlackRock's latest filing with the U.S. SEC shows that its Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio increased its holdings in the Bitcoin Investment Trust (IBIT) by 14%, bringing the total to 2.39 million shares. This move highlights that even traditionally conservative bond funds are beginning to use Bitcoin ETFs as a diversification tool, echoing the increasing structural support for IBIT, including plans to raise option position limits to accommodate larger-scale institutional strategies.