Bull or Bear? 5 Signals Dominating a New Bitcoin Cycle

Since the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the driving logic for Bitcoin price has shifted from on-chain signals to off-chain funds and leverage, with five signals jointly determining the direction of this bull and bear market.

First, ETF fund flows are a core driver of growth. Data from Gemini and Glassnode shows that spot ETFs hold over 515,000 Bitcoins, 2.4 times the amount issued by miners during the same period. Research confirms that ETF inflows have a far greater explanatory power for prices than traditional crypto variables.

A net inflow of $12.1 billion in the first quarter of 2024 directly propelled Bitcoin to a new all-time high; however, a net redemption of $3.7 billion in November 2025 (the largest monthly outflow since its launch) caused the price to fall from $126,000 to the $80,000 range. Now, a single-day outflow of $500 million from IBIT has an impact comparable to that of on-chain whales.

Secondly, perpetual financing and futures basis reveal the leverage cycle. The current annualized financing rate is stable at 8%-12%, and a peak exceeding 20% often indicates a local peak, while a severely negative financing rate corresponds to a cyclical trough.

During the period when ETF inflows turned negative in November 2025, futures open interest declined and margin ratios remained low, resonating with the decline in cryptocurrency prices. When ETF inflows surge while margin financing remains sluggish, it indicates sustained demand; conversely, if margin financing rates soar but ETF inflows stagnate, it signals a short-term bubble driven by leveraged buying.

Third, stablecoin liquidity is a cornerstone of the native market. In 2024, the supply of stablecoins increased by 59%, with a transaction volume of $27.6 trillion. Changes in their supply and exchange balances often precede price fluctuations.

The bull market momentum is strongest when both ETF funding and stablecoin supply are positive; conversely, when both turn negative simultaneously, the speed and magnitude of the decline will be exacerbated. ETFs serve as an entry point for institutional investors, while stablecoins determine the marginal funding size for native traders.

Fourth, the evolution of the holder structure is reshaping market resilience. Long-term holders (LTH) positions reached a record high, tightening the circulating supply, but the proportion of short-term "hot capital" rose to 38%, making the market more sensitive to capital flows. The price falling below the key cost range in November 2025 was directly related to the diversification of LTH holdings into ETFs and exchanges, weakening support.

Fifth, macro liquidity shocks are transmitted through ETFs. Bitcoin's beta coefficient to global liquidity changes is 5-9 times (compared to 2-3 times for gold and 1 time for stocks), making it a high-beta macro asset. Changes in Federal Reserve policies and real yields will be rapidly transmitted to the spot and derivatives markets through ETF fund flows.

The sell-off in the fall of 2025 was a chain reaction triggered by the tightening of liquidity and the collapse of expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to the outflow of funds from ETFs.

These five signals act like interconnected gears: ETFs define the institutional base, leverage ratios amplify or weaken momentum, stablecoins replenish native funding, the holder structure determines risk resistance, and macro liquidity controls capital costs. When these five factors align, the price is likely to rise; if they diverge, a decline is highly probable.