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Bitcoin Pricing in 'Most Bearish Global Growth Outlook' Since Covid and FTX Crash: Bitwise Research
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Bitcoin Pricing in 'Most Bearish Global Growth Outlook' Since Covid and FTX Crash: Bitwise Research
Despite low sentiment and falling prices, Bitwise’s André Dragosch says bitcoin is trading as if a recession is imminent, while macro growth expectations are already improving.
Автор Siamak Masnavi, AI Boost
Обновлено 29 нояб. 2025 г., 4:31 p.m. Опубликовано 29 нояб. 2025 г., 12:07 p.m. Переведено ИИ
BTC fell 0.94% to $90,718.53 on Nov. 29 as short-term sentiment remained bearish. (CoinDesk Data)
What to know:
- Bitwise’s Dragosch says bitcoin is pricing in a worse macro outlook than during the FTX collapse or 2020 Covid shock.
- The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 20, well above this month’s extreme low of 10, despite bitcoin hovering near $90K.
- The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets assign an 86.4% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, supporting hopes for recovery.
Bitcoin BTC$90 530,07 may be acting like a recession is imminent — even if the macroeconomic data suggests otherwise.
In an X post on Friday, André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, said that bitcoin is currently pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since the 2022 Federal Reserve tightening cycle and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. Drawing on macro survey data from sources such as Sentix, ISM, and the Philly Fed, Dragosch produced a chart comparing global growth expectations to the macroeconomic signals embedded in bitcoin’s price.
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The chart shows a sharp divergence: the black line representing bitcoin’s implied growth outlook has plunged below -1 standard deviation, significantly more pessimistic than the survey-based macro indicator, which remains around neutral. According to Dragosch, this setup resembles past dislocations like March 2020 and November 2022, just before bitcoin staged outsized rallies.
“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” he wrote, calling the current risk-reward setup asymmetric. “You’re not even remotely bullish enough,” he added, suggesting a recovery could resemble the sixfold rally seen after the March 2020 Covid shock.
However, sentiment remains fragile.
The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index held steady at 20 (“Fear”) on Saturday, matching yesterday’s level and slightly above the year-to-date low of 10, last seen on Nov. 22. For comparison, the index sat at 39 (“Fear”) one month ago, and hit a high of 84 (“Extreme Greed”) in late November 2024.
Bitcoin traded at $90,559 as of 11:30 a.m. UTC on Nov. 29, down 0.8% in the past 24 hours. Year-to-date, the cryptocurrency is down 3% and 28% from its all-time high of $126,080, reached on Oct. 6.
Meanwhile, macro expectations may be shifting.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders assigning an 86.4% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.5%-3.75% range at the central bank’s December policy meeting.
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AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
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Protocol Research: GoPlus Security
Commissioned byGoPlus
Что нужно знать:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
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Why Gold Is Winning Over Bitcoin in 2025: Liquidity, Trade, and Trust
Despite ETF hype, central banks and asset allocators continue to choose gold over crypto for reserve and trade purposes.
Что нужно знать:
- Gold has outperformed bitcoin since the launch of spot BTC ETFs, rising 58% as bitcoin fell 12%.
- Mark Connors says bitcoin remains “too young” for institutional trust, while gold continues to benefit from established infrastructure and trade use.
- Bitcoin’s recent slump reflects a global liquidity squeeze, not sentiment, with Connors pointing to U.S. Treasury spending delays as a key factor.
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