Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: A Week of Fed Setting the Tone, and a Drain of Data

PANews, November 29th - Due to a data center outage at the CME Group on Friday, spot gold and silver prices fluctuated wildly this week, continuing to rise after futures prices resumed trading. Gold prices rose nearly $150 this week, returning above $4200; silver's gains were even more pronounced, briefly surging to $56, a new all-time high. Next week, the Federal Reserve will enter its customary "blackout" period before its December meeting, and numerous economic data releases are imminent. Furthermore, with major traders returning from vacation, market volatility is likely to be high next week. The following are key points to watch in the coming week:

At 22:45 on Monday, the final reading of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November will be released.

At 09:00 on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at a memorial event;

At 11:00 PM on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will testify before a House committee.

At 21:15 on Wednesday, the US November ADP employment figures will be released.

At 22:45 on Wednesday, the final reading of the US S&P Global Services PMI for November will be released.

Thursday at 8:30 PM, US Challenger job cuts for November;

At 21:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending November 29 will be released.

At 23:00 on Friday, the US will release the preliminary readings of the one-year inflation rate for December, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December, the year-on-year rate of the core PCE price index for September, the month-on-month rate of personal spending for September, and the month-on-month rate of the core PCE price index for September.

Following a series of hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve spokespeople, doves have made a comeback over the past 10 days, bringing a rate cut at the December meeting back to the negotiating table. This dramatic reversal has caused the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed on December 10 to surge from about 25% to nearly 80%, a move that has resonated in financial markets. Fed officials typically guide Wall Street toward their final decision before the meeting to avoid surprises. In the past two years (covering a total of 20 Fed meetings), traders have only failed to fully priced in the outcome three times just before the policy decision.