Institutional investors surveyed by Goldman expect gold to break $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2025

Gold is already deep into record territory, and big money is now openly betting it still has another massive leg higher.

According to Goldman Sachs, a survey taken between Nov. 12 and Nov. 14 shows institutional investors now line up behind a bold call for $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026. The numbers are loud.

Thirty-six percent of more than 900 institutional clients expect gold to clear that level outright. Another 33% see a range between $4,500 and $5,000. More than 70% see higher prices next year. Just over 5% think it falls back toward $3,500 to $4,000.

The move already looks extreme on paper. Gold is up 58.6% year-to-date and smashed through $4,000 for the first time on October 8. On Friday, prices pushed to a two-week high as traders leaned into rate-cut hopes.

Spot gold rose 0.45% to $4,175.50. Futures climbed 0.53% to $4,187.40. The market keeps reacting to the same pressure points. Inflation stays sticky. Growth weakens in pockets. The dollar fades in cycles. Capital looks for shelter.

Central banks drive the bid

The survey shows 38% of investors see central bank buying as the main force behind the rally. Another 27% point straight at fiscal stress. Governments keep borrowing. Central banks keep expanding balance sheets.

Gold keeps absorbing the flow. Retail traders, hedge funds, and institutional desks all moved in this year as protection against inflation risk, political conflict, and a sliding dollar.

Global central banks continue to stack gold because it stays liquid, carries no default risk, and sits outside political blocs.

Mining stocks now ride that same wave. Stephen Yiu, portfolio manager at Blue Whale Capital, said earlier this month on CNBC Europe Early Edition that he is backing Newmont, the world’s largest gold miner. On the hedge fund side, Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Capital, made a rare long call at the Sohn London Investment Conference.

Carson said he sees Snowline Gold, a Canadian junior miner, as a possible takeover target in a sector where consolidation keeps building.

Futures outage hits trading as prices grind higher

Friday also delivered chaos inside the plumbing of the market. A technical outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange disrupted trading across gold futures and options on the Comex.

The disruption lasted for hours and froze hedging tied to London prices, the main global hub for physical trading. US futures trading later resumed after systems came back online.

“Spot and futures market goes hand-in-hand, as bullion traders use the futures to offset or hedge activity in the spot market,” said Ole Hansen, strategist at Saxo Bank.

“When that leg goes dark, the spot market suffers as well through higher spreads and lower activity, obviously not helped by the fact this was going to be a quiet day anyway, with the long Thanksgiving weekend in the US,” Ole said.

Despite the disruption, gold still holds a weekly gain of about 3% and remains on track for its fourth straight monthly advance after setting a record in October.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials and delayed economic data releases helped reinforce the case for lower borrowing costs, a setup that keeps favoring an asset that pays no interest.

On a longer view, gold now tracks toward its best annual performance since 1979. Heavy central-bank demand and firm exchange-traded fund inflows lifted prices above $4,380 last month, a level never seen before.

Investors continue to push deeper into alternative assets as they step away from government bonds and major currencies, and the flow has not slowed.

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