Kalshi’s Valuation Skyrockets as Investors Bet on a Prediction-Market Duopoly with Polymarket

• The private valuation of prediction market platform, Kalshi, has more than doubled in just a few weeks as investors bet that Kalshi and Polymarket will continue to dominate the space.
• In 2025 Kalshi has clawed significant market share away from Polymarket; it started the year at just 12% market share and now sits at just under 60%.
• The fight for market dominance is likely to heat up again soon though, as Polymarket now has approval from the CFTC to re-enter the US market after being banned for over four years.

The private valuation of prediction market platform, Kalshi, has more than doubled in just a matter of weeks as investors bet on Kalshi and Polymarket establishing a stable duopoly in the space.

Last month, during its Series D funding round, Kalshi was valued at around US$5 billion (AU$7.6b), but that private valuation exploded to US$11 billion (AU$16.8b) last week when the prediction market platform raised a further US$1 billion (AU$1.5b) in a funding round led by Sequoia and CapitalG.

Kalshi is currently battling Polymarket for dominance in the prediction market space — Polymarket itself is reportedly also seeking new financing at a valuation believed to be between US$12 – $15 billion (AU$18-22.9b).

Throughout 2025, Kalshi has steadily increased its market share. After starting the year at around 12% market share, Kalshi achieved a high of over 66% in September, and it currently sits at just under 60%.

Polymarket and Kalshi Market Share by Volume Source: The Block Data 

Unlike Polymarket, which runs on the Polygon blockchain network, Kalshi is not built on a crypto network. So, its usage data is reported by the company, whereas Polygon’s data is publicly available via the blockchain. 

Kalshi’s decision not to build its platform on a crypto network may have given it an edge in terms of regulatory approvals. It has faced few hurdles operating legally in the US, whereas Polymarket had been banned from operating in the US until just days ago.  

On Wednesday, Polymarket received the green light from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to legally return to the US market — a decision that is likely to see the battle for market dominance heat up again.

Further fuelling a potentially bullish period for Polymarket is the pending launch and airdrop of its much-anticipated POLY token.

Related: Kalshi Sues New York Regulator in Fight Over Sports Betting Authority

Polymarket & Kalshi Build Ties With Google And NHL

In early November, prior to Kalshi’s increased valuation, search giant Google announced it plans to integrate data from both Polymarket and Kalshi into its search and finance tools. 

The new data streams will initially launch on Google Labs and will allow users to query Kalshi and Polymarket data using natural language to use people’s wagers as a guide to the likelihood of certain outcomes, such as who might win an election or whether a recession will occur.

This integration marks Google’s first use of blockchain-based gambling data in its core product line. It will give searchers access to the “wisdom of the crowd”, according to Google, in addition to more traditional financial analysis.

Related: Study Finds One-Quarter of Polymarket Trading May Be Artificial

Despite swirling questions over the legality — due to regulations around sports betting — in October, both Kalshi and Polymarket also partnered with North America’s elite ice hockey league, the NHL. It marked the first time prediction markets had partnered with any major American sporting league.

“Teaming up with the NHL is an important milestone for Kalshi and the industry at large,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said in a statement. “It should be clear now – prediction markets are here to stay.”

The move is seen as alarming to those involved in preventing harms from gambling, financial crime and match-fixing. Chris Kronow Rasmussen, a director of financial crime prevention at Advisense and adjunct professor of sports betting integrity at the University of New Haven, told the New York Times it was “a little bit crazy.”

“They don’t call it sports gambling but prediction markets. But basically it’s the same. They don’t call it sports betting because then they would need a license,” Kronow Rasmussen said.

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