Daily Market Update: Fed Rate Cut Bets Push Markets Higher Ahead of Thanksgiving

TLDR

• US stock markets posted their best four-day winning streak since May, with the Dow up 0.7%, S&P 500 up 0.7%, and Nasdaq up 0.8% ahead of Thanksgiving
• Markets are pricing in over 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December after recent economic data showed retail sales and inflation below expectations
• Bitcoin traded above $90,500 but faced rising realized losses and weakening demand according to CryptoQuant and Glassnode data
• Large cryptocurrency holders increased deposits to exchanges with BTC and ETH inflows surging, indicating potential selling pressure from whales
• Gold prices climbed above $4,170 as expectations for lower US interest rates boosted demand for the precious metal

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US stock markets closed higher on Wednesday, marking their strongest four-day performance since May. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%, adding over 300 points to close at 47,427.12.

The S&P 500 also rose 0.7% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed nearly 0.8%. Technology stocks led the gains with Nvidia shares jumping more than 1%.

E-Mini S&P 500 Dec 25 (ES=F)

Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple also posted increases during the session. Alphabet shares pulled back slightly from record highs but remained near peak levels.

Markets are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and will operate on a shortened schedule Friday. Trading will end at 1 p.m. on the day after the holiday.

The rally comes as investors anticipate potential Federal Reserve action in December. Markets are pricing in over 80% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the central bank’s meeting in two weeks.

Recent economic data has supported expectations for lower interest rates. September readings on retail sales and wholesale inflation came in below forecasts.

Initial jobless claims fell last week to their lowest level since April. The Department of Labor data showed unexpected strength in the labor market.

Bitcoin Rally Built on Thin Foundation

Bitcoin traded above $90,500 in Wednesday trading but faces questions about sustainability. CryptoQuant reported rising realized losses among investors, suggesting exhaustion rather than recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Large deposits are driving the latest wave of BTC inflows to cryptocurrency exchanges. The average deposit value jumped sharply as major holders moved coins, according to CryptoQuant data.

Ethereum followed a similar pattern with deposits reaching their highest level in almost three years. ETH prices slid toward the $2,900 area during the period.

The surge in deposits coincided with weakening liquidity conditions across crypto markets. Glassnode’s weekly report showed realized losses climbing to levels comparable to previous cycle lows.

The short-term holder profit and loss ratio has collapsed, showing limited buying momentum. Combined data suggests the price uptick may mask deeper liquidity stress in the market.

Gold prices rose above $4,170 in early Wednesday trading. Lower US interest rate expectations boosted demand for the precious metal.

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