Lee still argues that Bitcoin’s biggest gains often come in just a handful of trading days, which means that sharp upside could still be possible. At the same time, several major technical indicators—including the 200-day trend and a recent death cross—have flipped bearish, prompting analysts like Crypto₿irb and Markus Thielen to warn that Bitcoin may already be in a bear market.
Tom Lee Scales Back Bitcoin Forecast
Bitcoin’s end-of-year outlook took a big turn after BitMine chair Tom Lee softened one of the most bullish forecasts circulating in the market. After spending most of 2025 holding on to his call for a $250,000 Bitcoin price by year-end, Lee is now suggesting only a “maybe” that the cryptocurrency can even reclaim its October all-time high of around $125,000 before 2025 arrives. In an interview with CNBC, Lee said that Bitcoin could still climb above $100,000 in the coming weeks but stopped short of repeating his earlier target.
The shift is the first public moderation of Lee’s previously unwavering stance. Even in early October, he maintained the $250,000 forecast despite skepticism from other industry heavyweights. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz warned at the time that Bitcoin reaching such a level will require “crazy stuff” to unfold. Still, Lee insists that Bitcoin’s best days may not be behind it and could arrive before the close of 2025.
One of Lee’s core arguments hinges on Bitcoin’s historical tendency to generate the bulk of its annual gains in a handful of trading sessions, which could be as few as ten days. He pointed out that investors often underestimate how much of Bitcoin’s long-term performance comes from extremely limited windows of rapid movement.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley agreed with this view earlier in the year by mentioning that in 2024, Bitcoin’s top ten trading days delivered a combined 52% return. The other 355 days collectively saw an average negative return of 15%. Missing those moments, both executives argue, means missing almost all of Bitcoin’s upside.
Bitcoin struggled to regain momentum since Oct. 10, when a $19 billion market-wide liquidation followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. The market shock helped push Bitcoin into a multi-week downtrend, where the asset spent almost a week below $90,000 before finally reclaiming the level. That downturn came despite historical seasonality. November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month on average since 2013, according to CoinGlass.
BTC’s price action over the past month (Source: CoinMarketCap)
Some analysts believe the worst may already be over. Economist Timothy Peterson suggested this week that Bitcoin’s bottom may have already formed or will form soon. But investors familiar with Lee’s track record know that his predictions have been mixed.
In 2018, he forecast Bitcoin hitting $125,000 by 2022, a milestone that did not arrive until October of 2025. On the other hand, Lee has also made strikingly accurate calls. In 2017, he projected a base-case scenario of $20,000 by 2022 and a more bullish outlook of $55,000—targets Bitcoin ultimately met in December 2020 and March 2021.
Bitcoin Flashing Bear Signals…
Despite Lee’s bullishness, a key long-term technical indicator for Bitcoin shifted decisively bearish, which pushed some analysts to warn that the bull market may already be over. Crypto analyst “Crypto₿irb” said that Bitcoin is showing a “persistent trend shift” marked by weakening momentum, rising volatility, increased selling pressure and an extended period trading below the 200-day trend. He argued that these factors collectively signal the end of the bull cycle and predicted 2026 could be a year of continued declines.
Most of the concern centers around two widely watched long-term indicators: the 200-day trendline and the 200-day moving average. According to the analysis, the 200-day trend has rolled over, reflecting a loss of structural strength in Bitcoin’s movement. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average turned downward in mid-November, shortly after forming a bearish “death cross” when it fell below the 50-day moving average. These events are typically interpreted as signals that market sentiment flipped and that long-term buyers are losing control.
Other analysts share similar views. Markus Thielen of 10x Research said in an interview that “there is no debate” that Bitcoin is currently in a bear market, though he characterized the recent rebound as a “bear market reversal rally.” Despite this, not everyone agrees that Bitcoin has fully entered bearish territory.
Apollo Capital CIO Henrik Andersson believes that although the strong buying from digital asset treasuries seen in the first half of the year has cooled, it does not necessarily mean the asset is in a formal bear phase. He believes broader risk-asset trends will ultimately determine Bitcoin’s direction from here.
On shorter time frames, some analysts see potential for bullish relief. Crypto trader “Skew” said that the four-hour chart looks more constructive, with momentum pointing upward so long as buyers can continue defending key levels. A drop below $88,000, however, will signal weakening momentum. He identified the $90,000–$92,000 range as the first major battleground for market structure.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/12697/tom-lee-dials-down-his-bitcoin-target-as-year-end-nears
