Three days that matter

By Francisco Tiu Laurel, Jr. and Lionel Dabbadie

EVERY TYPHOON season in the Philippines brings a cycle of loss that is predictable as it is devastating. Fields are flattened, boats destroyed, markets disrupted, and families forced into years of recovery. Yet amid this familiar pattern, a quiet but consequential policy shift is taking hold. The Philippines is no longer relying solely on post-disaster response. It is moving toward a governance model that acts before disaster strikes: anticipatory action rooted in science, backed by financing, and embedded in local systems.

That shift was on full display in November, when the country’s Department of Agriculture (DA) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) activated an anticipatory action pilot in Region II three days before Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (Uwan) made landfall. In coordination with DA’s Special Area for Agricultural Development Program and the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, the agencies released locally tailored agroclimatic advisories and protected crops, livestock, and fishing boats while it was still safe to do so. These early measures shielded hundreds of smallholders — people who could not have afforded to evacuate or safeguard their assets without outside support.

The evidence is clear: anticipatory action can reduce disaster losses by up to 3.5 times compared with traditional reactive approaches. For a sector as exposed as agriculture, the potential gains in resilience and poverty reduction are immense.

A year earlier, in November 2024, those gains were put to the test. Six tropical cyclones, including Super Typhoon Man-Yi (Pepito), battered the country in less than a month. Instead of overwhelming local capacity, the sequence became the first real-world activation of the Philippines’ forecast-based financing system. Once scientific triggers such as wind speed, rainfall, projected damage, and modelled impacts on vulnerable communities were reached, funds and technical support were released within minutes, up to 72 hours before landfall.

Thousands of families in Regions V and VIII received pre-disaster cash transfers and guidance to secure their assets. In Catanduanes and Northern Samar, alone, about 6,400 farmers and fishers received P3,300 each (about $56), deposited before markets shut down. Cooperative groups evacuated 283 fishing boats, demonstrating the economic logic of early action: safeguarding boats costs a fraction of replacing one and preserves a household’s key productive asset.

These outcomes highlight a central policy truth: anticipatory action is not merely humanitarian. It is a strategic investment in national resilience, reducing fiscal burdens on government and accelerating economic recovery in rural areas.

The most transformative change, however, is unfolding within communities. After years of simulation exercises and DA training, local governments, and cooperatives in places like Catanduanes now activate early protocols largely on their own: mobilizing volunteers, communicating advisories, and securing shared resources. What once required heavy support is becoming local practice, a sign that early action is taking root where it matters most.

Institutionally, the passage of Republic Act No. 12287, the Declaration of State of Imminent Disaster Act, is a turning point. The law allows national and local governments to declare imminent disaster based on scientific risk assessments, enabling early measures three to five days before impact. It closes a long-standing policy gap that forced officials to wait for damage before taking action. With RA 12287, early budgeting, pre-disaster procurement, and forecast-based responses become not only possible but expected. It also positions the Philippines as a global leader in anticipatory governance, offering a model for climate-vulnerable countries.

To strengthen this shift, policy and program systems must evolve in several areas. Scientific triggers and impact models need continuous refinement to better capture local realities such as crop calendars, fishing cycles, microclimates, and market access challenges. Early action protocols should be further integrated into agriculture, fisheries, and social protection programs so that seed protection, early harvesting, and boat evacuation become routine interventions. Local governments must be supported to operationalize RA 12287 through clearer guidance on pre-disaster procurement, budget mobilization, and interagency coordination. The private sector, particularly logistics firms, financial institutions, and insurers, can also align products with forecast-based activation to help ensure supply chains and financial lifelines remain functional as storms approach.

Across the archipelago, farmers and fisherfolk cooperatives and associations are already absorbing these practices, thereby protecting inputs, adjusting planting schedules, and organizing asset evacuation as part of regular planning. These community-driven efforts form the backbone of what could become a truly whole-of-society approach to establishing an anticipatory system.

Ultimately, anticipatory action represents a shift not only in policy but in mindset. It challenges the belief that disasters must simply be endured, and replaces it with the conviction, grounded in data and lived experience, that losses can be significantly reduced when decisions are based on science and taken before the worst arrives. It aligns humanitarian goals with the economic rationale of reducing losses, accelerating recovery, and avoiding long-term dependence on emergency aid.

Typhoons, floods, and drought will continue to test the Philippines. But with systems proven in 2024 and 2025, a growing body of evidence base and a national law that enables proactive intervention, the country now has the tools and the mandate to act early. The work ahead is to consolidate and scale these gains, ensuring that anticipatory action becomes a predictable and institutionalized pillar of disaster governance.

Climate-induced hazards will not stop. But with timely support, strong science, and empowered communities, their consequences can be dramatically reduced, giving rural and coastal families the power to protect their lives and livelihoods before disaster strikes and ensuring that no one is left behind.

Francisco Tiu Laurel, Jr. is the secretary of the Department of Agriculture. Lionel Dabbadie is the FAO representative in the Philippines.