ETF outflows and macro data keep traders guarded as bitcoin’s ‘gentle recovery’ extends: analysts

Bitcoin extended its rebound to the $88,000 level as crypto markets attempted a cautious recovery ahead of a dense run of delayed U.S. macro data.

This week, BTC has traded between $85,000 and $89,150, extending a weekend recovery that lifted total crypto market capitalization back to roughly $3.07 trillion, according to The Block’s price page. Ethereum held near $2,900, while Solana climbed nearly 6% to trade around $136, supported by persistent rotation flows into spot ETFs.

Still, the broader market floated in modest relief, with large caps accounting for most of the recovery while mid-cap tokens continue to lag following last week’s heavy deleveraging.

ETF flows diverge sharply

Monday’s session showed another split in U.S. ETF flows. Bitcoin ETFs experienced $151 million in net outflows, continuing a multi-week de-risking trend. By contrast, Ethereum and Solana ETFs logged inflows of $97 million and $58 million, respectively.

Notably, institutional interest in SOL ETFs has defied market fears. Wall Street products that track Solana prices have posted 20 consecutive days of net inflows since launch.

However, the broader crypto-fund market has witnessed massive redemptions in recent weeks. Last week, global crypto ETPs saw $1.9 billion in outflows, marking the third-worst run since 2018, according to CoinShares data reported earlier by The Block.

BRN Head of Research Timothy Misir said the flows reflect a broader pattern whereby bitcoin stands out as the primary risk-off instrument, while ETH and SOL continue to attract selective rotation from longer-duration capital. “The divergence suggests Bitcoin remains the primary de-risking instrument, while ETH and SOL attract selective rotation flows from longer-duration capital,” Misir wrote in a Tuesday note.

Bottom signals flash despite onchain stress

According to BRN’s Misir, the market is “transitioning from aggressive selling to a more orderly unwind.”

Key onchain activity metrics — transfer volumes, fee revenue, and Realized Cap Change — all fell last week, a pattern Misir described as typical of late-stage corrections, in which market participants step back rather than capitulate en masse.

Still, several profitability metrics remain deeply compressed, and short-term holders are still heavily underwater.

“This aligns with historical bottom-formation ranges,” Misir said, noting that unrealized loss spikes typically precede sustained stabilization.

Bitcoin’s short-term momentum has also improved. Bi-weekly indicators rebounded from oversold conditions, open interest held steady, and cumulative volume deltas remain negative — pointing to closing longs rather than fresh bearish conviction.

Options markets remain defensive but less panicked, while institutional activity continues to shift. The CME recorded a record 794,903 BTC futures contracts in daily volume, confirming that professional desks used last week’s drawdown to rebalance and hedge.

Misir said the market remains inside the $84,000–$90,000 accumulation range, with volatility likely to stay elevated until ETF flows stabilize. “Conditions for a bottoming pattern are forming,” he said, “but durability is unproven.”

Fed repricing gives BTC room to breathe

Tactical tailwinds emerged late Friday after dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who suggested “near-term” rate cuts remain on the table. That view lifted the probability of a December 25 bp cut to about 80%, up from roughly 30–40% earlier in the week, according to pricing cited by QCP Capital.

December rate cut probabilities | Image: CME FedWatch Tool

QCP analysts said the shift “gave BTC room to breathe,” though the asset is still technically bearish after dropping more than 30% and breaking multiple key support zones in recent weeks.

Options positioning shows traders hedging both directions. QCP noted that end-of-December call open interest still outweighs puts, with the largest positions at $85,000, $120,000, $130,000, $140,000, and $200,000 strikes.

Max pain sits near $104,000, a level that “may carry more significance than usual” given record open interest and rising volatility, the firm said. Yet, QCP warned that weekend bounces have historically been unreliable and said Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s data releases will determine whether last week’s rebound extends.

According to the firm, U.S. PPI and retail sales (delayed releases), jobless claims, core PCE, and GDP are all due before the holiday, setting up “a decisive macro window.”

Macro retains dominant driver role

Broader macro pressure still outweighs crypto-native drivers, according to Ruslan Lienkha, Chief of Markets at YouHodler.

Lienkha said the performance of U.S. equities — currently undergoing a corrective phase — is the key determinant for BTC in the short term. He added that institutional investors have mainly trimmed exposure or moved to the sidelines, while retail has shown “heightened fear and uncertainty.”

Furthermore, Lienkha agreed with earlier analyst commentary that the next few weeks are likely to remain cautious, with BTC potentially seeing brief rallies but still vulnerable if equity markets break lower.

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