Executive summary
- Trend bias: Wave 4 temporary correction.
- Key support level: 23,854 – 22,521.
- If correct, wave 5 could rally to 25,950-27,301.
Back on October 7, we analyzed Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and the diverging RSI hinted of an incoming bearish reversal. Turns out, there was a relatively small reversal on October 10 at -3.5% that was quickly retraced and led to new all-time highs.
Then, beginning October 29, NDX began another decline of nearly -8.9%. The structure of the decline hints that it is a corrective decline eventually leading to new all-time highs.
Current Elliott Wave analysis
Our Elliott wave analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) chart hints the rally that began in April has reached the end of its 3rd wave.
The 3rd wave of an Elliott wave impulse pattern needs to subdivide in 5 waves and we can count those waves in place from the April 21 low labeled ((i))-((ii))-((iii))-((iv))-((v)).
This suggests the correction from October 29 is wave 4 of a larger 5-wave impulse pattern. Wave 4 and wave 2 are cousin waves…they are similar, but tend to alternate in qualities. They should be similar in the depth of their corrections.
Wave 2 of the impulse pattern (in April 2025) corrected -8% as a zigzag pattern. Wave 4, so far, has corrected about -8.9%, similar to wave 2. Additionally, wave 4 has reached the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the distance of wave 3 (not pictured).
This is common for wave 4 to correct between 23-50% of wave 3.
Lastly, the decline from last week has reached horizontal support from the previous 4th wave symmetrical triangle pattern.
As a result, the decline to the Friday, November 21 low, may be all or part of wave 4.
When wave 5 begins, we anticipate a rally that may reach 25,950, 27,301, and possibly 29,635 based on common Fibonacci extension ratios.
Bottom line
The structure of the decline in NDQ appears to be of a corrective pattern. Therefore, the decline is forecasted to be temporary in wave 4 and lead to a new high in wave 5.
Wave 5 targets include 25,950 – 27,301.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nasdaq-elliott-wave-wave-4-support-202511250504
