TD Cowen: Strategy's Bitcoin premium is nearing the lows of the "crypto winter," but we maintain our buy rating.

PANews reported on November 25th that, according to The Block, a recent report from TD Cowen indicates that the Bitcoin premium at Michael Saylor's Strategy continues to decline and is currently "approaching the lows of the 2021-2022 'crypto winter'." The report includes two updated premium charts (one looking back to 2020 and the other covering the last 12 months), showing that Strategy did not issue new shares or purchase new Bitcoin through an market offering (ATM) yesterday, a move that has drawn renewed attention to its current premium level. The charts show that the current premium has fallen significantly from its peak at the end of last year and is gradually compressing to levels seen in late 2021 and early 2022.

Despite this, TD Cowen maintains a bullish stance on MSTR, keeping its buy rating and $535 price target (approximately 200% higher than Strategy's current share price of around $180), believing that "achieving this target within a year is reasonably achievable." The report states, "We have not adjusted our base Bitcoin price forecast, expecting Strategy to hold 815,000 Bitcoins by the end of fiscal year 2027. Based on this, we estimate its holdings to be worth over $185 billion by December 2027, or approximately $540 per share. The $535 price target reflects zero premium to the intrinsic value per share in December 2027." The report also emphasizes that the risk of Strategy being removed from the MSCI index has already put downward pressure on the share price, and anticipates the company will be removed from the index and continue to face pressure under the shadow of MSCI inclusion.