INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 02: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Los Angeles Rams gestures during the third quarter in the game against the New Orleans Saints at SoFi Stadium on November 02, 2025 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
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If you ask people who should be in the running for the NFL MVP in 2025, names that have been coming up include the likes of Drake Maye, Jonathan Taylor, and even still Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. One player who should’ve been at the top of that MVP list for weeks has flown under the radar, but he’s now in everyone’s spotlight: Matthew Stafford.
The Los Angeles Rams quarterback is in his 17th season, yet the former first-overall draft pick is turning back the clock. Through 12 weeks, Stafford is playing at an all-around level never seen before. Sure, he’s had some statistically great years, but nothing with the efficiency that he’s having right now.
During Los Angeles’ 34-7 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night, Stafford reached 30 touchdown passes on the season. Hitting that mark in just 11 games is the fastest he’s done it in his career. Yes, that includes the two seasons when he threw 41 touchdowns in 2011 and 2021.
Total touchdowns are only part of the story, though. Stafford is posting a career-best 8% touchdown percentage rate and passer rating at 112.7. In addition, he leads the league in first downs passing and has the longest pass play of the season at 88 yards.
Diving Further Into The Data?
Stafford has given fans great seasons in the past like the Rams’ Super Bowl year in 2021, but something feels different this time around. The deeper you dig into the numbers, the more it becomes clear that Stafford is performing better in certain situations than he ever has.
In the red zone, his 65.7% completion rate ranks fifth in the league and marks the first time he has topped 65% inside the 20 since posting a career-best 68.4% in 2015. He’s currently throwing a career-low number of interceptable passes at a 0.8% rate while being first in the league in “big time throws” at 23. According to Pro Football Focus, big time throws are defined as passes with “excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”
What makes it more impressive is that he’s not doing it without being under duress. Despite having the fourth-best protection rate in the NFL at 86.9%, Stafford has still been hit 37 times so far this year. That pace would be the second-highest hit total over the last eight years. He’s also on pace for the second-most under pressure throws in his career. Yet, again, he’s finding his receivers and making the plays he’s asked to make.
Matthew Stafford’s Future MVP Outlook
So, what’s the future looking like for Stafford? Based on where things stand, he’s projected to set career highs in touchdowns, fewest interceptions in a full season, passing success rate, passer rating, and several other efficiency markers. He has had big seasons before, but this pace is something entirely different.
As of writing, Stafford is on track for a career-high 46 touchdowns with just a career-low three interceptions. His 71% completion percentage, if it holds, would mark the first time he finishes a season at or above the 70% mark. That kind of accuracy, paired with his touchdown production, puts him in rare company historically and strengthens the case that this is the best version of Stafford seen. In fact, he’d become the third quarterback in NFL history to have 45+ passing touchdowns with a completion percentage over 70%. The other two are future Hall of Fame quarterbacks Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.
He’s also the odds-on betting favorite for the 2025 NFL MVP award with odds ranging from -110 to -160, depending on the sportsbook. If he and the Rams continue to play the way they have across 11 games, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see those odds shorten even further.
Beyond awards and milestones, there’s the question of longevity. At 37 years old, Stafford is showing no signs of slowing down. His mechanics look as clean as ever, he’s throwing with confidence, and he’s operating the offense with a level of comfort that suggests he could extend this run beyond just one more standout season. If the Rams keep him upright and continue tweaking the offense around what he does best, there’s a path where Stafford’s late-career window remains open longer than anyone expected.
For now, though, the focus stays on the immediate future. The Rams are the current number one seed in the NFC at 9-2, and Stafford is playing the most efficient football of his career. With everything on the line, the rest of this season has the potential to be one of the defining stretches of Stafford’s 17-year career, and it could end with his first MVP and another Super Bowl trophy.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikestraw/2025/11/23/matthew-staffords-quietly-dominant-nfl-mvp-campaign/
