The Week Ahead: Thanksgiving Trading Week Brings Retail Sales Data and Tech Earnings

TLDR

• Stock markets close Thursday for Thanksgiving, with shortened hours Friday at 1 PM ET for stocks and 2 PM ET for bonds
• September retail sales data, delayed by government shutdown, releases Tuesday ahead of Black Friday shopping
• Major earnings reports include Dell Technologies, Alibaba, John Deere, and Best Buy this week
• Tech stocks struggled last week with Nasdaq falling over 2% and S&P 500 down 1.5% despite strong Nvidia earnings
• Bitcoin dropped near $80,000, down almost 10% year-to-date, with crypto-focused stocks like Strategy down over 40%

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The Thanksgiving holiday will shorten this week’s trading schedule. Stock markets close Thursday and finish early Friday at 1 PM ET.

Bond markets will close at 2 PM ET on Friday. The abbreviated schedule comes as investors process recent market volatility and await delayed economic data.

The September retail sales report releases Tuesday after delays from the government shutdown. This data arrives just before Black Friday, one of the year’s busiest shopping days.

Forex Factory

The report will show whether consumer spending remained strong heading into the shutdown period. Investors are watching closely as the holiday shopping season begins.

Tech Stocks Show Weakness Despite Strong Results

Last week saw major market swings even after positive economic news. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell over 2% for the week.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each dropped about 1.5%. Thursday saw one of the biggest intraday reversals in a decade.

E-Mini S&P 500 Dec 25 (ES=F)

The S&P 500 flipped from a gain above 1.5% at opening to a loss exceeding 1.5% by close. The Nasdaq experienced an even larger swing.

Nvidia reported strong earnings Wednesday evening but the stock failed to hold gains. The chip maker’s shares fell 1% on Friday.

Meta and Oracle have lost more than 15% and 25% respectively in the past month. Microsoft stock dropped 9% over the same period.

Smaller chip companies like AMD and Intel lost closer to 10%. The weakness comes as concerns grow about AI infrastructure spending.

Major Earnings Reports This Week

Dell Technologies and HP report Tuesday after analysts downgraded both companies. The firms face higher component costs.

Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce giant, also reports Tuesday. Applied Digital, Autodesk, NetApp, and Zscaler round out Tuesday’s schedule.

John Deere reports Wednesday and will provide insight into construction and agriculture sectors. Best Buy and Kohl’s are among retailers reporting this week.

Workday reports for the first time since Elliott Investment Management disclosed a stake in the company. Zoom and Agilent report Monday.

Economic Data Catches Up After Shutdown

Tuesday brings the September Producer Price Index alongside retail sales data. The Conference Board releases its November consumer confidence reading Tuesday.

Weekly jobless claims data releases Wednesday. Last week’s employment report showed strong hiring.

Several reports originally scheduled this week face delays. These include third-quarter GDP, the October PCE Price Index, and October trade balance data.

The data backlog could complicate decisions for Federal Reserve officials. The Fed’s next interest rate decision is scheduled for December 10.

Pending home sales and durable goods orders for September are also on the calendar. The Chicago Fed national activity index for October releases Monday.

Crypto Markets Face Pressure

Bitcoin approached $80,000 at Friday’s lows, coming close to April’s low points. The cryptocurrency is down almost 10% year-to-date.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Strategy, which pioneered the digital asset treasury model, has fallen over 40% this year. The company focuses on acquiring bitcoin as its primary business strategy.

Institutional investors added $348 billion in Nvidia holdings during the third quarter. Total institutional holdings for both Nvidia and Microsoft now exceed $2 trillion.

The government will work through remaining data backlogs in coming weeks. Markets remain focused on AI spending levels and infrastructure investment plans from major tech companies.

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