Bitcoin’s brutal November drop is now shaping into its sharpest monthly loss since 2022, and analysts say the latest data paints a cycle turning point rather than a routine pullback. As charts flash extreme oversold signals and new comparisons to the 2020 bull-run emerge, the market’s volatility is forcing traders to reassess what comes next.
Worst Month Since 2022 Fuels 2020 Pattern Debate
Bitcoin is on track for its worst monthly performance since June 2022, as November’s return sinks deep into negative territory on Coinglass’s heatmap. Ash Crypto highlighted the move, noting that despite the earlier rally, the current drawdown now stands out as the weakest month in more than two years.
Bitcoin Monthly Returns Table. Source: Coinglass / X
At the same time, the historical table shows how sharply conditions shifted from the strong green prints of earlier in 2025. January, April, May, July and September all closed with double-digit or solid single-digit gains, while November now mirrors the heavy red cells last seen during the 2022 downturn. As a result, the latest move underlines how quickly Bitcoin’s performance can flip even within an ongoing cycle.
Meanwhile, another analyst is already pointing back to the last major bull leg. Trader Pepesso shared a side-by-side chart that compares Bitcoin’s 2020 advance with the current price action and overlays gold’s moves in both periods. In his view, Bitcoin’s consolidation after the recent peak and gold’s fresh all-time high echo the setup that preceded the explosive 2020–2021 rally.
Bitcoin 2020 vs 2025 Cycle Comparison. Source: Pepesso on X
In the chart, Bitcoin’s 2020 structure shows a grinding climb that steepened after gold topped out and began to fade. The 2025 panel repeats that visual pattern, with gold again tagging a new high while Bitcoin corrects. According to Pepesso, this combination of a consolidating Bitcoin chart and a rolling gold price could again mark the handoff from a metal-led move to a renewed crypto breakout.
However, both posts stress that the market must first work through the current volatility. November’s steep loss confirms that downside risk remains high even after a strong year-to-date performance. Yet, by contrasting the red cell on the return table with past cycles and overlaying gold’s trajectory, the analysts frame the present slump as another decisive month in Bitcoin’s longer-term story rather than an isolated shock.
RSI And MACD Point To Exhausted Bitcoin Selloff
Bitcoin’s latest slide has pushed key momentum indicators to extreme levels, with signals now matching heavy selling conditions on the daily chart. Analyst Cas Abbé noted that Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index has stayed in oversold territory for three straight sessions, showing how aggressively sellers have controlled the tape.
Bitcoin RSI and MACD Oversold Chart. Source: TradingView / Cas Abbé
At the same time, the daily MACD line has dropped to its lowest reading of the cycle on the Binance BTCUSD chart. That move, Abbé said, suggests that downside momentum has already stretched to an extreme as price falls from the recent peak above 120,000 dollars toward the mid-80,000 area. The combination of a deeply oversold RSI and a depressed MACD often appears after extended liquidation phases rather than at the start of fresh ones.
Therefore, Abbé argued that conditions are now set for a potential counter-move. He added that he “wouldn’t be surprised” to see a bounce or short-term relief rally from here, which could catch late bearish traders on the wrong side of the move. Yet, while the indicators show exhaustion, the post also implies that any rebound would unfold against the backdrop of an already fragile market that has just absorbed one of its sharpest downlegs of the year.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/12544/bitcoin-s-worst-month-in-years-ignites-fresh-debate-over-a-2020-style-comeback
