Fed mouthpiece: Powell is not the biggest obstacle to rate cuts; Fed's internal consensus mechanism is on the verge of collapse.

PANews reported on November 22nd that, according to Jinshi, Nick Timiraos, a well-known figure in the Federal Reserve's internal communications, wrote that Trump stated this week that he expects interest rates to fall significantly after appointing a new Fed chairman next May. However, internal opposition to a December rate cut is growing, meaning his wish may be difficult to fulfill. Whether Powell chooses to hold rates steady or cut rates in December, he faces the most severe internal resistance in his nearly eight-year term. This division could continue into next year, meaning that even a change of chairman does not guarantee more rate cuts. Some worry that if Trump fails to achieve his goal, he may resort to more aggressive measures to weaken the central bank's independence in exchange for rate cuts. For over 30 years, Fed chairs have sought the broadest possible consensus on interest rate decisions, with no decision passed by a narrow majority. However, the December meeting is highly likely to see three or more dissenting votes. Evercore ISI economist Krishna Guha stated, "We are witnessing a breakdown in the decision-making process, and next year we may see a serious split within the committee. (December) feels like a preview of 2026." This suggests an unprecedented prospect: monetary policy outcomes may be decided by a very rare, narrow majority (rather than the long-standing tradition of pursuing broad consensus), and the new chairman appointed by Trump may not be able to control the situation every time.