BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has become one of the most closely watched voices during the sell-off.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin has fallen below $82,000 after two months of continuous decline.
- Analysts disagree on the outlook: some see a looming bottom, others expect more downside before recovery.
- Long-term projections still include the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $200,000, but the timing remains uncertain.
According to him, Bitcoin is approaching the end of the correction, but the market should not expect an immediate rebound. Hayes believes that a true bottom will not form until U.S. equities undergo their own pullback, arguing that fresh liquidity only enters Bitcoin when risk assets across markets reset.
His earlier projection — made when Bitcoin was still hovering around $90,000 — suggested that the price could still slide into the $80,000 to $85,000 range before stabilizing. With Bitcoin now under $82,000, his scenario has played out almost exactly. Despite his caution, Hayes has not abandoned his long-term optimism and continues to see a path for Bitcoin to reach $200,000.
Raoul Pal Sees the Crash as Part of a Familiar Crypto Cycle
Macro analyst Raoul Pal takes a broader historical approach. He argues that the current sell-off is part of a recognizable pattern rather than a sign of a trend reversal. In previous bull markets, sharp corrections have been common and often arrived without clear catalysts. Pal cites past market phases — including the multiple drawdowns during 2016–2017 and the pandemic-era plunge — as evidence that fast, aggressive corrections have repeatedly appeared before new highs.
From this perspective, the recent volatility does not contradict a bullish cycle. Instead, Pal believes that the intensity of the pullback reflects the unwinding of crowded positions, similar to other mid-cycle resets.
Peter Brandt Focuses on the Longest Horizon
Veteran trader Peter Brandt maintains a view that stretches much farther into the future than the others. He recently suggested that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory could still include a dramatic drop to $58,000 before a major expansion phase. In his model, however, the next explosive rally would not happen soon. He projects that Bitcoin could ultimately rise to $200,000 around the third quarter of 2029, not within the current cycle.
Brandt has reiterated that he continues to hold Bitcoin despite anticipating more downside risk in the near term.
A Unified Price Chart — Diverging Outlooks
Even though Bitcoin’s move below $82,000 has prompted widespread concern, analysts are far from agreeing on what the decline represents. Hayes believes the market is close to a bottom but still needs additional macro stress to complete the reset. Pal views the downturn as a predictable repetition of past cycle corrections. Brandt anticipates an eventual recovery but expects the current cycle to include more pain before long-term upside returns.
For traders, the challenge now is not whether the market is volatile — but which forecast will prove correct as Bitcoin searches for stability.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/hayes-on-bitcoin-collapse-wait-for-u-s-stocks-to-fall-before-going-all-in/
