Analysts Warn of Max Pain Levels

Key takeaways:

• A Bitwise analyst outlined the $84,000 to $73,000 region as the likely “max pain” capitulation range for Bitcoin.

• Cost-basis levels of BlackRock’s IBIT and Strategy’s BTC treasury could heavily influence liquidity flows.

The worst-case scenario for BTC is a “fire-sale” level 

Bitwise European head of research André Dragosch said Bitcoin’s “max pain” zone resides between two critical cost-basis levels: BlackRock’s IBIT at $84,000 and MicroStrategy’s near $73,000.

Dragosch argued that a final cycle bottom is most likely to form somewhere between these levels, describing them as “fire-sale” prices that represent a full reset of market positioning.

The cost basis of IBIT, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), reflected the average price at which the ETF acquired its BTC holdings. When the price approaches this threshold, sentiment often deteriorates because ETF holders begin to evaluate whether continued drawdowns justify redemptions. 

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) daily netflows. Source: SoSoValue

This dynamic is already visible as IBIT posted its worst single-day outflows of $523 million on Tuesday, contributing to $3.3 billion in total ETF outflows over the past month, or 3.5% of total assets under management (AUM).

Strategy is currently at a more fragile point. Its net asset value (NAV) recently fell below 1, signaling that the market now values the company’s equity at a discount to the underlying Bitcoin it holds, historically a sign of tightening liquidity and risk aversion. A retest of its $73,000 cost basis could further stress sentiment and trigger heavier de-risking if macroeconomic conditions worsen.

MSTR mNAV against diluted shares. Source: StrategyTracker

Related: 10-year Bitcoin model approves buying BTC at $100K since time does ‘the heavy lifting’

Macroeconomic risk builds as the Fed wavers on December rate cuts

Data from CryptoQuant noted that the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is unusually uncertain after a government shutdown delayed key labor data, leaving the Fed with limited visibility. Rate-cut expectations have fallen to 41.8% on Thursday, and minutes show a divided committee balancing persistent 3% inflation with the risks of premature easing. 

If the Fed opts not to cut, liquidity could remain restricted, the same environment that triggered Bitcoin’s sharp sell-off earlier in November.

Total stablecoin exchange reserve forecast. Source: CryptoQuant

Still, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have reached a record $72 billion, matching the accumulation pattern that preceded every major Bitcoin rally in 2025. Under a no-cut scenario, analysts expect BTC to trade from $60,000 to $80,000 into year-end as liquidity stays sidelined until macroeconomic clarity improves. 

Related: $90K Bitcoin price is a ‘close your eyes and bid’ opportunity: Analyst

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-slump-to-dollar86k-brings-btc-closer-to-max-pain-but-great-discount-zone?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound