Bitcoin Price Forecast: Why BTC Could Drop to $69K

Highlights:

• BTC is heading lower as it breaches all key support levels
• Breach of $80k psychological support could see it drop to $69k
• Declining expectations of a December rate cut make such a drop possible 

Bitcoin (BTC) continues the downtrend that has characterized its price action recently. At the time of going to press, Bitcoin was trading at $82,447.86, down by 10% in the day. This correction has also been followed by a surge in trading volumes during the day. At the time of writing, volumes have shot up by 46.08% to stand at $117.08 billion. 

This is an indicator that panic is spreading in the market and that holders are looking to exit from their Bitcoin holdings. The volumes to price dynamics also hint at a possible continuation of the selloff that has characterized the price of Bitcoin in recent months. It also shows that hopes of a rebound before the end of the year are declining. There are multiple factors that point to a possible continuation of the selloff that Bitcoin has started today. 

Bitcoin Expected to Drop Further As Rate Cut Hopes Diminish

One of them is the fact that the Federal Reserve is no longer expected to cut rates in December, as was expected before the government shutdown. Analysts now believe that the odds of such a cut are low and that a dovish pivot by the Fed may not be coming any time soon. This means the much-anticipated liquidity that could trigger a rally in risk-on assets may not be coming. The impact is that all risk-on assets are currently on a downtrend.

Stocks are crashing, with the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 now appearing to enter bear territory. Such signals from the stock markets mean capital flight from cryptocurrencies is set to be higher. That’s because, overall, cryptocurrencies tend to have a higher volatility than stocks.

As such, investors looking to preserve capital and watching what is happening in the stock markets are likely to flee from cryptocurrency first. Essentially, if the stock market points to even more downside, Bitcoin could drop to prices below $70k in the short term. 

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Add to Downside Pressure

The pressure from the lack of a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve is made worse by Bitcoin ETF outflows. In recent weeks, outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have been accelerating, recently hitting a high of $3 billion. As these outflows increase, sell-side pressure for Bitcoin will rise and push the price to new lows in the short to medium term. One of the factors that could add to the outflow from ETFs is the fact that Bitcoin appears to be failing at all key support levels.

At first, market participants expected the $100k support to hold, and it failed. Then came the $90k support, which was also recently broken. This has created the impression that the bear market for Bitcoin is in, and that even prices as low as $60k could soon become a possibility. The result is that Bitcoin ETF selloffs could get even stronger, and the pressure could send the price lower. Essentially, there is not much that supports a possible rebound in the short term. 

Technical Analysis – BTC Breakdown After Short-Term Consolidation

After the recent selloff following the loss of the $100k support, Bitcoin consolidated between the $93,098 resistance and $88,759 support. Today, this consolidation is broken, and Bitcoin is trending lower with momentum.

Source: TradingView

If the selloff continues, the next key level to watch will be the $80k psychological support level. A breach of the $80k support could trigger a drop to Bitcoin’s all-time high of the previous cycle at $69k. On the other hand, if BTC rebounds anywhere above $80k, then a rally back to $90k, or higher, could follow. Of these two scenarios, a breach of the $80k support seems more likely. That’s because all risk-on assets are taking a bearish pivot at the moment.

eToro Platform

Best Crypto Exchange

• Over 90 top cryptos to trade
• Regulated by top-tier entities
• User-friendly trading app
• 30+ million users

9.9

Visit eToro

eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk. Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment, and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong.